Mike Treadaway Director of Research Fischer Family Trust

Contents Principles Including some reminders FFT Live – Key Analyses Value Added Estimates Student Characteristics History and Progress Student Explorer Frequently Asked Questions

Using Data : Science or Art? Painting by NumbersImpressionism It’s significantly low so it must be bad Your target is …….. Mike’s target grade is E so he has no chance of getting a C What range of possibilities should we consider when setting targets? Mike, last year 10% of students like you got a C grade – can you? That raises some interesting questions – how can we find out more?

Keeping a Balance A school might wish to emphasise CVA: – As the closest approach to eliminating factors outside of the school’s control, the fairest way to evaluate school effectiveness A pupil will be more concerned with ‘What did I achieve?’ than with ‘Did I make good progress?’ Which will matter most to a potential employer? Raw Scores Progress (VA)Effectiveness (CVA) ANDnotOR

FFT Live – Key Analyses FFT Live - Current Reports Primary Secondary

FFT Live – Key Reports - Primary 3 year value-added and trends Significant Areas Grid Details of individual years Significant Areas Detail Unpacking the detail even further Pupil Value- Added Focus on chances Pupil Estimates Range – Starting point for discussion! School Estimates Individuals, history, chances and risks Student Explorer

Step 3: ‘Drilling down’ - KS5 Subject Estimates Example: KS1 to KS2 Value Added (3 Year Significant Areas Grid)

Step 3: ‘Drilling down’ - KS5 Subject Estimates Example: KS1 to KS2 Value Added (Significant Areas Detail)

Step 3: ‘Drilling down’ - KS5 Subject Estimates Example: KS1-2 Pupil Value Added Summary

Example: KS2 Pupil Estimates (Subject) Report

Example: KS2 School Estimates

Deciphering the Vocabulary Estimate Prediction Target What is likely given average progress Taking the estimate and other things into account, what I think will happen By how much do I want to try to improve on the prediction?

Ethos, Ownership and Impact Your target is Here’s a range of possibilities... Where do you aim to be? Applies to schools, staff and students!

FFT Live – Developments in 2010 Development area introduced Significant number of new reports added Interactivity and Options e.g. Vary level of ‘challenge’, look at both PA and SX 2009 Most development reports will move to Main Student Explorer extended to include estimates, chances, risks, additional data items and selection filters Enhance links between reports – focus on usability Work with MIS suppliers to ensure that data from FFT Live can be more easily imported into school systems School Group reports - Enabling schools to share data (not individual student data). Designed to promote collaboration and sharing of effective practice 2010

Pupil Characteristics and Progress Student Explorer: Provides a range of reports designed to enable students to be grouped / selected using range of characteristics Currently, characteristics include: Gender EAL (derived from first Language) Prior Attainment Below ‘national expectations’ at previous key stage Moved school during key stage Also number of times moved school in total FSM Entitlement SEN Stage First Language and Ethnicity - using the most detailed coding systems available in School Census data

Student Details – School History - A School census was first collected in 2001/02. In the example shown, it is likely that the student arrived from outside the UK because there are no census records for Y2, Y3, Y4 or Y5. Collection of school census data on a termly basis started: for secondary schools in summer 2005/06 for primary schools in spring 2006/07

Student Details – School History - B First language was not collected using detailed codes until Spring 2006/07. Some schools (a small proportion and decreasing each year) still record first language using only broad categories (English or Other than English).

Current Investigations Areas of investigation (Feb 2010): Language, Mobility and when entered the UK. Change in FSM status Mobility – number of times changed school Combinations of Ethnicity and First Language Gypsy/Roma and Travellers of Irish Heritage EAL and variations in KS4 subjects Variations between schools Paper has details of each investigation.Example of ‘headline outcomes’ - Investigation

Investigation 1 EAL, Mobility and Time in Key Stage E – H are EAL Students Group G EAL students Likely to have arrived from outside UK during latter part of previous key stage Group G EAL students Likely to have arrived from outside UK during latter part of previous key stage

Frequently Asked Questions Can we compare FFT Estimates and RAISE indicative targets? FFT ‘D’ is at 25 th percentile RAISE 25 percent is average of top 25 percent Differences in use of socio-economic data Why do estimates change? Estimates models updated using latest national data once per year, currently May/June) Changes in cohort, from school census, 3 time each year) How do FFT calculate expected progress? Use Fine Grades / Sublevels in prior- attainment data Take account of prior- attainment in all core subjects

Final Thoughts Data, data, everywhere, but not a stop to think Data, data, everywhere, but not a stop to think Choosing what to do and, therefore, what NOT to do is an important component of success Choosing what to do and, therefore, what NOT to do is an important component of success