Noah Built Before it Rained Forecast : Rain Annimac APOGCE Meeting Needs – Leading Change 19 October Speaker Special Session Future Trends Special Session Future Trends

The Three Wise Monkeys The Three Wise Monkeys The Oil Companies : - hear no depletionThe Oil Companies : - hear no depletion Governments & International Agencies : - see no depletionGovernments & International Agencies : - see no depletion And all agree it would be best to : - talk no depletionAnd all agree it would be best to : - talk no depletion

Typical Oil Depletion Curve Norway (North Sea) Werner Zittel, LBST

The Saudi Reserves are Seriously Overstated Matthew Simmons. February 2004

Oil & Gas Journal April 12, 2004 Douglas - Westwood Ltd Cambridge UK Study : World oil forecast beset with reserves shortfalls

ASPO Newsletter 40, April Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas Oil discovery Oil production Forecast ?

Data from IHS Energy and OGJ annual reports IHS and O & GJ Remaining Reserves Francis Harper ASPO 2004, Berlin

Why are oil depletion forecasts being down played? " Do you wish to : Kill your career Kill your career Head the redundancy list Head the redundancy list Be blamed for starting the panic ? " Be blamed for starting the panic ? " Chris Skrebowski Institute of Petroleum Institute of Petroleum

Rate of Change Rate of Change every 5 seconds : new web siteevery 5 seconds : new web site every 5 minutes : new technologyevery 5 minutes : new technology every 5 days : new product / service Amount of change now in one day our Grandparents had in one year

Technology : in % of types of jobs do not exist now because 80 % of technology not yet conceived Driving all Drivers of Change

Gap widening : Knowledge Haves / have nots Age generations Globally networked Speed of Change : Social Trends

Based on Technology Access Skill Not wealth 50 % population no phone call Gap : Haves - Have Nots

Gap : Age Generations Gap : Age Generations Four generations : Three worlds Baby Boomers 45 – 60 yrs Materialism authority : in - defer economic rationalists : profit material values : tangibles science as religion : rational Generation X 30 – 45 yrs clones of Boomers : materialists copy younger : sustainability

Four generations : Three worlds DotComs yrs Sustainability global identity co opitalism relationships holistic win - win – win Ferals 0 – 15 yrs Virtual no limits no boundaries parallel universes beyond our imagining create what need Gap : Age Generations

Gap : Globally Networked Gap : Globally Networked access all knowledge empowered confident passionately committed global view future

Impact for OG Industry Impact for OG Industry transiting two worlds - accelerating values attitude shifts sustainability Big Rollover value driven cooperation not competition young non negotiators relationships : consumers partners innovators

Thank you Thank you

Very special note of appreciation to Bruce Robinson for his impeccable knowledge regarding global Oil Depletion and his generosity in sharing it. Thank you, Bruce. annimac