Prices and Prospects for Global Food Security Keith Wiebe International Food Policy Research Institute USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum Arlington, VA February 20, 2014

Outline Why prices (and incomes) matter Food security past and present Food security over the next decade Food security in the longer term What can be done?

What is food security? 1974 World Food Summit “availability at all times of adequate world food supplies of basic foodstuffs to sustain a steady expansion of food consumption and to offset fluctuations in production and prices” 1996 World Food Summit “when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life”

1974 WFS 1996 WFS

Availability is necessary, but not sufficient Source: Data from FAO Food Production Population Undernourished

4 dimensions of food security availability global, national, local, household land, water, inputs, technology, yields access national, local, household, individual prices, income, wealth utilization individual clean water, sanitation, health stability variability in any of the above Photo: Curt Carnemark, World Bank

(March 12,2013)

Food security in the United States Source: USDA ERS (2013)

Source: IFPRI (2013) IFPRI’s Global Hunger Index

ERS projections for 76 developing countries

Source: FAO (2012) Number Percentage FAO projections of undernourishment in developing countries

Source: Nelson et al., PNAS (2013) Modeling climate impacts on agriculture: The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP)

AgMIP climate scenarios to 2050 Source: Nelson et al., PNAS (2013)

The role of agricultural technologies Baseline to 2050, including climate change Linked crop models and economic models Assessed 11 technologies for maize, rice and wheat Impacts on prices, yields, risk of hunger Source: IFPRI (2014)

Source: Rosegrant et al., IFPRI (2014) Price effects of climate change

Source: Rosegrant et al., IFPRI (2014) Price effects of technologies

Source: Rosegrant et al., IFPRI (2014) Impacts on Food Security

In sum… Prices and incomes matter Because access matters Because most hungry people are food producers but net buyers of food Because the poor spend disproportionately on food Food security past and present Food security over the next decade Food security in the longer term What can be done? Investment in R&D, extension and education Policies to facilitate market access and trade Risk management and social protection

Thanks for your attention