1 UNCERTAINTY AND ORGANIZATIONAL BEHAVIOR IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY POLICY: APPLICATIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT Royce A. Francis Department of Engineering and Public Policy Carnegie Mellon University Pittsburgh, PA USA Prepared for: PIA 2501 Development Policy and Administration 1 November 2006

2 My Background  Howard University  B.S. Civil Engineering  Carnegie Mellon University  M.S. Civil and Environmental Engineering  Ph.D. Engineering and Public Policy (expected 2008)  Research Interests  Drinking water policy, water distribution system modeling, exposure assessment and risk characterization, evidence synthesis, infrastructure investment and risk assessment

3 Objectives  Identify the role of uncertainty in science and technology (S&T) policy problems  Discuss three organizational structure models, and their place in addressing uncertainty and formulating S&T policy

4 Outline  Introduce uncertainty as a concept  Discuss trans-scientific nature of policy problems  Present alternative organizational structure models  Introduce use of “sound science” in decision-making using examples  Generalize conclusions about uncertainty and organizational structure in development

5 Outline  Introduce uncertainty as a concept  Discuss trans-scientific nature of policy problems  Present alternative organizational structure models  Introduce use of “sound science” in decision-making using examples  Generalize conclusions about uncertainty and organizational structure in development

6 “What is uncertainty?” “Uncertainty is what we don’t know about what we think we know…”  Morgan and Henrion (1990)  Uncertainties in policy very important, reported in exceptional analyses  Physical scientists are required to report their uncertainties; thus, policy analysts should be as well  Uncertainty is critical in S&T policy

7 Outline  Introduce uncertainty as a concept  Discuss trans-scientific nature of policy problems  Present alternative organizational structure models  Introduce use of “sound science” in decision-making using examples  Generalize conclusions about uncertainty and organizational structure in development

8 “What is science?”  Three lines of thought  Karl Popper “Science: Conjectures and Refutations”  Thomas Kuhn “The Structure of Scientific Revolutions”  Alvin Weinberg “Science and Trans-Science”  “Science” is guarded by a community  Policy analysis is often a mixture of Weinberg and Kuhn  Guiding assumptions and theories often non-falsifiable  Often, they emanate from dominant paradigm

9 Reconciling policy with reality: Fields of S&T Policy Research  Benefit-cost analysis and/or decision analysis  Uncertainty analysis and/or sensitivity analysis  Risk assessment, characterization, and communication Most conflicts arise in policy formulation due to utility- maximization paradigm

10 Outline  Introduce uncertainty as a concept  Discuss trans-scientific nature of policy problems  Present alternative organizational structure models  Introduce use of “sound science” in decision-making using examples  Generalize conclusions about uncertainty and organizational structure in development

11 Organizational Structure Models  Adapted from Allison and Zelikow, 1999  Three Models  Rational actor Explain events using aims and calculations of nations or governments  Organizational behavior Output of large organizations using standard operating procedures  Governmental politics Output of an organization is result of “bargaining games”

12 Organization structures and uncertainty Structure Type “Situations with Less Uncertainty” “Situations with More Uncertainty” Rational Actor Org. Behavior Gov. Politics

13 “… And development subscribes to what model?...” Governmental politics model seems to describe recent approach in development administration literature (Rondinelli, White, Edwards, Pressman and Wildavsky, and Brinkerhoff)  Must account for local realities  Stakeholders need room to maneuver  Must understand complex interactions between decision-makers and constituents

14 Seven things to consider if applying the governmental politics model… 1. Higher Quality Decisions 2. The Agency Problem: Principles, Agents, and Players 3. Participants: Who plays? 4. Decision Rules 5. Framing Issues and Setting Agendas 6. Groupthink 7. Complexity of Joint Decision and Action

15 Objectives  Introduce uncertainty as a concept  Discuss trans-scientific nature of policy problems  Present alternative organizational structure models  Introduce use of “sound science” in decision-making using examples  Generalize conclusions about uncertainty and organizational structure in development

16 “Sound Science” and Decision Making: Examples Microbial Disease Protection vs. Disinfection By-product Control in Drinking Water Global Warming in a Carbon-Constrained World: What can we do? Nanotechnology: Are we ignoring the risks? DDT for African Malaria Control: “Safe for you, but not for me!” Evidence Synthesis: The Art of Prioritizing Research

17 Objectives  Introduce uncertainty as a concept  Discuss trans-scientific nature of policy problems  Present alternative organizational structure models  Introduce use of “sound science” in decision-making using examples  Make generalizations about uncertainty and organizational structure in development

18 Conclusions  S&T details cannot be ignored in many policy problems  Organizational structure dictates how uncertainties are addressed  Need to facilitate rather than control policy development  Co-operation and partnership support autonomy and freedom needed for S&T development

19 Suggested Reading  Uncertainty, Max Henrion and M. Granger Morgan, 1990  Essence of Decision, Graham Allison and Philip Zelikow  Implementation, Jeffrey Pressman and Aaron Wildavsky  The Revolt of the Engineers, Edwin T. Layton, Jr.  The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, Thomas Kuhn  Micromotives and Macrobehavior, Thomas Schelling