1 Regional Seminar for Decision Makers SIDS Caribbean Project Climate Change in the Caribbean by Ulric O’D Trotz, Ph.D Project Manager Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change (MACC) Project

2 BPOA – SIDS 1994 Priority – climate change –What is climate change? –It is a gradual warming of earth’s atmosphere due to accumulation of ghg’s (green house gases) –major greenhouse gases –co 2 from fossil fuel consumption –n 2 o from agriculture –ch 4 from livestock and rice cultivation –no x from fossil fuel CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE CARIBBEAN

3 Global warming of approximately 0.8 o C observed over the last century Predicted that warming of 3.5 o c – 6.8 o C for this century Resulting in –Warmer seas, less precipitation and changed weather patterns More extremes More frequent? And more intense hurricanes –Negative impacts on Agriculture Tourism Health Water Human settlements CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE CARIBBEAN

4 Region already vulnerable to climate related disasters –Floods –Drought –Hurricanes –Landslides Message –Climate change will exacerbate existing impacts, for example, linear increase of wind speed results in an exponential increase in damages due to hurricanes CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE CARIBBEAN

5 Huang et al. (2001) assess property damage from a model of extremes winds. These ratios are the proportion of damages made observed from Hurricanes Andrew and Hugo. One hundred percent of weighted damages means that the maximum damage has been reached.

6 Regional responses –All CARICOM countries have ratified the UNFCCC –GEF support for: CPACC project 1998 –2001 MACC project 2003 – 2007 Compilation of national communications –CIDA support ACCC project 2001 – 2004 –Establishment of the CCCCC in Belize CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE CARIBBEAN

7 CPACC project sought to build regional capacity for adaptation to climate change through: –Monitoring to build an understanding of the extent of climate change –Understanding the extent of the region’s vulnerability to this change –Devising responses to reduce the vulnerability of the region’s human, social, economic and natural systems to climate change - ADAPTATION CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE CARIBBEAN

8 The ACCC project built on the foundation of CPACC and also –Established a master’s programme in climate change at the university of the West Indies, Cavehill –Developed A risk management guide for incorporating climate change into development planning Guidelines for incorporating climate change impacts into EIA’s A business plan for the CCCCC A regional PEO (Public Education & Outreach) strategy –Carried out studies on climate change impacts on water, agriculture and health sectors in the region CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE CARIBBEAN

9 MACC project will continue to further develop regional capacity to adapt to climate change through: –Further scientific research to more clearly define the extent of climate risks to which the region will be exposed; –To determine the degree to which the region’s human, natural and socio-economic systems are vulnerable to these risks; –Developing cost effective adaptation responses to these risks; –Mainstreaming adaptation policies in national development planning; and –Implementing the PEO strategy developed under the ACCC project CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE CARIBBEAN

10 Local Support needed ( NFP’s & NCCC’s) Institutionalize NCCC—multidisciplinary reporting function to Cabinet. –Facilitate participation in activities of MACC. –Access to data –Training activities –Vulnerability Assessments –Maintenance and management of monitoring equipment. –Implementation of country PEO programmes –Participation in regional/international activities related to Climate Change- UNFCC COP9, SUBSTA, SBI. CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE CARIBBEAN

11 Supporting activities leading to Adaptation/ Mitigation of Climate Change –Energy, Water Conservation –Water harvesting –ICZM –Mangrove, coral reef protection –Afforestation –Enforcement e.g. building codes, setbacks. –Improved land-use management CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE CARIBBEAN

12 Data requirements –National Climate Data –Data for climate modeling –Data for statistical downscaling Put Climate Change on the National Development Agenda CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE CARIBBEAN