1 Proposition 8  April 2008: Nearly 1.1 million signatures delivered to CA Secretary of State  May 15, 2008: CA Supreme Court issues In Re Marriage Cases.

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Presentation transcript:

1 Proposition 8  April 2008: Nearly 1.1 million signatures delivered to CA Secretary of State  May 15, 2008: CA Supreme Court issues In Re Marriage Cases decision  June 2, 2008: Proposition 8 certified for November 4, 2008 ballot  June 15, 2008: same-sex couples start marrying in California

2 Proposition 8: The Media War  August 2008: Let California Ring airs “Tripping Bride” ad constantly during Beijing Olympics TV coverageTripping Bride  September 2008: Let California Ring print and radio ads run in ethnic media outlets until the end of the month  September : First NO ON 8 ad airs: “Don’t Eliminate Marriage For Anyone”Don’t Eliminate Marriage For Anyone  September : First YES on 8 ad airs “Whether You Like It Or Not”Whether You Like It Or Not  October : Yes on 8 airs “Princes” adPrinces  October : No on 8 airs response to “Princes” ad response to “Princes  October : Yes on 8 responds with “Truth”Truth  October : No on 8 ends the campaign with “Divisive” and “Discrimination”DivisiveDiscrimination

3 Proposition 8 Aftermath  Certified Election Results on Proposition 8 Statewide  YES 7,001,084 (52.30%)  NO 6,401,482 (47.70%)  Margin: 599,602 (4.6%)  Voter Turnout: 13,743,177 out of 17,304,091 (79.42%) Los Angeles County  YES 1,624,672 (50.04%)  NO 1,622,287 (49.96%)  Margin: 2,385  Turnout: 3,246,959 out of 4,111,642 (79%)

4 Black vs. Gay: Proposition 8 Aftermath  CNN Exit Poll Released showed that 70% of African Americans voted in favor of Proposition 8 (later revised down to % by an academic analysis)  Media narrative became Blacks versus Gays Between Nov. 4-Nov 18 I appeared in  The Los Angeles Times  Good Morning America (Sunday)  KABC-TV  Local radio stations (KCRW-FM, KPFK-FM)

5 Why Gay is NOT ‘the new Black’ 1. There are people who are both Black and Gay 2. Although both communities have experienced identity-based discrimination, slavery (and its incidents) is simply not equivalent to what LGBT have experienced 3. The phrase and the comparison trivializes both the experience of Black people and LGBT people in this country 4. To paraphrase Dan Savage, the gay rights movement is a civil rights movement but the movement for racial equality is the Civil Rights Movement.

6 The Future!?  Blogger Nate Silver (fivethirtyeight.com) has looked at the 30 states that have voted to amend their constitution and done a regression analysis which shows that the most important factors are 1. The year in which the amendment was voted upon; 2. The percentage of adults in 2008 Gallup tracking surveys who said that religion was an important part of their daily lives; 2008 Gallup tracking surveys 3. The percentage of white evangelicals in the state.  When extrapolated into the future it shows the year in which a similar vote to ban gay marriage would fail in each state