The Presidential Election Cycle in the U.S.A.

Something to Consider… Which do you value more? democracy or freedom of speech How are elections a test of both values?

Types of Elections? 4 kinds: regional/local, state, congressional, Presidential (est. 80,000 different kinds of elections in America / year) 2 kinds in a Presidential election: Primary-Caucus elections—contests within a party General election—contest between parties

Steps in the Process 1. Campaigning and fundraising--throughout 2. Caucuses and Primaries 3. Political party conventions 4. Election Day 5. Vote of the Electoral College

Two Kinds of Campaign Issues Position issues (crunchy elections) rival candidates have opposing views, voters are divided and a partisan realignment may result Position issues in 2008: social security, defense spending, public school choice systems Valence issues: (squishy elections) Candidate supports the public, widely held view Increasingly important because television leads to a reliance on popular symbols and admired images Valence issues in 2008: War on Terror, Housing and other Financial Bubbles

The Electoral Process (Using Election 2008 as an Example) Many Democrats seek their party’s nomination Campaigns & Debates Candidates “Throw Their Hat Into The Ring” Many Republicans seek their party’s nomination Campaigns & Debates

The Electoral Process (Using Election 2008 as an Example) Many Democrats seek their party’s nomination Campaigns & Debates Primaries & Caucuses Primaries & caucuses held in each state Iowa holds the 1st caucus (Jan. 3, 2008) New Hampshire holds the 1st primary (Jan. 8, 2008) Candidates “Throw Their Hat Into The Ring” Many Republicans seek their party’s nomination Campaigns & Debates Primaries & Caucuses

The Electoral Process (Using Election 2008 as an Example) Many Democrats seek their party’s nomination Campaigns & Debates Primaries & Caucuses Obama secures the nomination Primaries & caucuses held in each state Iowa holds the 1st caucus (Jan. 3, 2008) New Hampshire holds the 1st primary (Jan. 8, 2008) Candidates “Throw Their Hat Into The Ring” Many Republicans seek their party’s nomination Campaigns & Debates Primaries & Caucuses McCain secures the nomination

The Electoral Process (Using Election 2008 as an Example) Many Democrats seek their party’s nomination Campaigns & Debates Primaries & Caucuses Obama secures the nomination Obama selects Biden as his running mate Primaries & caucuses held in each state Iowa holds the 1st caucus (Jan. 3, 2008) New Hampshire holds the 1st primary (Jan. 8, 2008) Candidates “Throw Their Hat Into The Ring” Many Republicans seek their party’s nomination Campaigns & Debates Primaries & Caucuses McCain selects Palin as his running mate McCain secures the nomination

The Electoral Process (Using Election 2008 as an Example) Convention held in Denver (Aug. 25 – 28, 2008) Parties Hold National Conventions Develop the party platform Speeches are given in support of the nominee (a pep rally) Delegates vote & the nominee is officially announced Convention held in Minnesota (Sept. 1 – 4, 2008)

The Electoral Process (Using Election 2008 as an Example) Convention held in Denver (Aug. 25 – 28, 2008) Parties Hold National Conventions Develop the party platform Speeches are given in support of the nominee (a pep rally) Delegates vote & the nominee is officially announced Candidates campaign against each other and debate the issues Convention held in Minnesota (Sept. 1 – 4, 2008)

The Electoral Process (Using Election 2008 as an Example) Convention held in Denver (Aug. 25 – 28, 2008) General Election 1st Tues. after the 1st Mon. in Nov. (Nov. 4, 2008) The “popular vote” is conducted Eligible citizens vote for the “electors” for Obama & McCain Parties Hold National Conventions Develop the party platform Speeches are given in support of the nominee (a pep rally) Delegates vote & the nominee is officially announced Candidates campaign against each other and debate the issues Convention held in Minnesota (Sept. 1 – 4, 2008)

The Electoral Process (Using Election 2008 as an Example) Obama: 69,456,897 Popular Votes Convention held in Denver (Aug. 25 – 28, 2008) General Election 1st Tues. after the 1st Mon. in Nov. (Nov. 4, 2008) The “popular vote” is conducted Eligible citizens vote for the “electors” for Obama & McCain Parties Hold National Conventions Develop the party platform Speeches are given in support of the nominee (a pep rally) Delegates vote & the nominee is officially announced Candidates campaign against each other and debate the issues McCain: 59,934,814 Popular Votes Convention held in Minnesota (Sept. 1 – 4, 2008)

The Electoral Process (Using Election 2008 as an Example) Obama: 365 Electoral Votes Electoral College Votes 1st Mon. after the 2nd Wed. in December (Dec. 15, 2008) Electors vote at their respective state capitols Must receive 270 votes to win Usually just a formality, the results are not in doubt McCain: 173 Electoral Votes

The Electoral Process (Using Election 2008 as an Example) Obama: 365 Electoral Votes Electoral College Votes 1st Mon. after the 2nd Wed. in December (Dec. 15, 2008) Electors vote at their respective state capitols Must receive 270 votes to win Usually just a formality, the results are not in doubt Inauguration Occurs Jan. 20 at 12:00 (noon) Sworn-in by the Chief Justice of the U.S. Supreme Court McCain: 173 Electoral Votes

League of Women Voters of Massachusetts Citizen Education Fund Narrowing the Field During and after the primary elections, many candidates are forced to drop out because of lack of support. National conventions serve to nominate their party’s candidate for president and vice president. League of Women Voters of Massachusetts Citizen Education Fund

National Conventions Delegates attend the National Conventions to cast their votes for a candidate. Candidate with a majority of delegate votes wins that party’s nomination for President. Vice Presidential candidates are chosen by the Presidential nominee and are nominated at the National Convention.

What factors influence voting? Rank the following in importance: Likability of candidate Belief in importance of the office/position Impact on personal interests Distinction from other candidate Party platform ***Voter turnout is half the battle…

How do people vote? “It’s the economy, stupid!” Most voters who switch parties do so in their own interests They know what issues affect them personally. They have strong principles about certain issues (abortion, etc.). Prospective voting is used by relatively few voters. Those voters know the issues and vote accordingly. Most common among activists and special interest groups

Citizens United: Are Corporations Protected? How does Citizens United show the court’s preference for the First Amendment over democracy?

How do people vote? Retrospective voting practiced by most voters, and decides most elections Judge the incumbent’s performance and vote accordingly Have things gotten better or worse, especially economically? Reagan in 1980 debate Examples: presidential campaigns of 1980, 1984, 1988, 1992, 1996 Usually helps incumbent.., unless economy has gotten worse Midterm elections: voters turn against president’s party 2002 exception (war)

Debates Usually an advantage only to the challenger Reagan in 1980: reassured voters by his performance 1988 primary debates with little impact on voters

Effects of Election on Policy Comparison: Great Britain, with parliamentary system and strong parties, often sees marked changes, as in 1945 and 1951. Conclusion: Many American elections do make differences in policy, though constitutional system generally moderates the pace of change.