Project Title: Reduced form CGE models for the economic analysis of terrorism events Kickoff Template Submission Date: July 2014 Research Team, Peter Dixon (PI & RTL); James Giesecke, Maureen Rimmer, Adam Rose, Glyn Wittwer and Mark Horridge (OCI’s)

2 Project Objectives: Research Goals –Produce reduced form CGE models for economic analysis of terrorism events. Research Transition Goals –Construction of user-friendly spreadsheet programs containing reduced-form CGE models. –Transfer to DHS via training programs.

3 DHS Interest and Motivation: (Why is DHS interested) –DHS has a policy interest in assessing the economic effects of a wide range of threat scenarios. –DHS needs a quick turn-around tool that does not require CGE expertise to run. (Who at DHS are your contacts) –Stuart Evenhaugen, Jessica Cox, James King, Scott White, Michele DeCroix, Tony Cheeseborough, Scott White and others.

4 Potential non-DHS Stakeholders: Who else (operators/customers) could be interested in your research transition? –Other state and federal agencies with a policy interest in assessing the economic consequences of terrorism, natural disasters and other threat scenarios.

5 Interfaces to Related Research (Who else is working on this) –Adam Rose –2 (Interfaces with others in this field) –1 –2

6 Research Technical Plan: Develop reduced form model as a linear approximation of the full scale CGE model. Develop software that generates approximate CGE solutions on the basis of the linearized model.

7 Research Transition Plan: Develop DHS training material. Deliver first DHS training course. Consult with DHS on simulation scenarios. Undertake simulation of scenarios. Final DHS training course featuring simulation scenarios.

8 Milestones and Schedule/Timeline: Oct 14 – Feb 15: Theory & software Feb 15 – Mar 15: Training materials May 15: Agree DHS scenarios May 15 – Aug 15: Model scenarios Nov15: Final DHS training course