Democratization in the late twentieth century By Samuel D. Huntington Li Yuan CHEN/Fumie NAKAMURA

Chapter 1 What?

 Beginning: At twenty-five minutes after midnight, Thursday, April 25, 1974, in Lisbon, Portugal.  The following 15 years : - Scope: Portugal → Global - 30 countries: Authoritarianism → Democracy - A score of other countries were also affected by the democratic wave.

Chapter 1What? The meaning of democracy

Concept of Democracy: As a form of government  Old Usage: Greek Philosophers  Modern Usage: (mid-20c)terms of sources of authority for government, purpose served by government, and procedures for constituting government.

 Central Procedure of Democracy - Joseph Schumpeter (1942) Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy : Selection of leaders through competitive elections by the people they govern.  How to define political system as democracy pp. 7 - Robert Dahl: two dimensions---Contestation and participation

The critical point in the process of democracy: pp. 9  The replacement of a government that was not chosen this way by one that is selected in a free, open, and fair election.

Several other points about defining democracy  1. The definition of democracy in terms of elections is a minimal definition.  2. Conceivably a society could choose its political leaders through democratic means, but these political leaders might not exercise real power.  3. The fragility or stability of a democratic political system.  4. Whether to treat democracy and nondemocracy as a dichotomous or continuous variable.  5. Nondemocratic regimes do not have electoral competition and widespread voting participation.

TotalitarianAuthoritarianism A single party, led by one manSingle leader or small group of leaders, No party or weak party A pervasive and powerful secret police No mass mobilization A highly developed ideology/ideal society No ideology Government control mass communication and economic organizations Limited government

Chapter 1 What? The waves of democratization

Initial push in the West  English Revolution The fundamental Orders of Connecticut JANUARY 14,1639 “First written constitution of modern democracy.”

Waves Year First, long wave of democratization First reverse wave Second, short wave of democratization Third wave of democratization1971-

The third wave of democratization  First: Southern Europe  Late 1970s: move to Latin America also in Asia.  The end of the decade: engulfed the communist world.  The movement toward democracy was a global one.  The democratization waves and the reverse waves suggest a two-step-forward, one- step backward pattern.

Chapter 1 What? The issues of democratization

 1. Political democracy is closely associated with freedom of the individual.  2. Political stability and form of government are two different variables.  3. The spread of democracy has implications for international relations.  The future of democracy in the world is special importance to Americans.

Ch.2 “WHY”

4 Possible Explanations of Democratization Waves

Single Cause  One single cause(A) can cause a democratization(x) in multiple countries. For example: a rise of a new superpower, major change in international distribution of power, war.

Parallel Development  Democratization could be caused by similar developments in the same independent variables (a1, a2…)  For example: when a country has reached a certain level of GNP, it is likely to develop democracy.

Snowballing  An important cause for democratization occurs in one country (a1) and it triggers further democratization movements in different countries. (Not simultaneously.)

Prevailing Nostrum  The specific individual cause of political change (a1 to d4) & common set of political beliefs (z=nostrum to the existing problems) produce similar responses (x1, x2..).  Simultaneous.

 Dependent Variable: Democratization =dynamic, complex. ≠ Democracy  What could be the Independent variable?

 1) Declining Legitimacy and the Performance Dilemma  2) Global Economic Development of the 1960s  3) Religious Changes  4) Policies of “External Actors” (Europe and US, etc.)  5) ”Snowballing,” Demonstration effects

1)Declining Legitimacy and the Performance Dilemma  Authoritarianism: justified by nationalism and ideology.  The victory of the Western Allies in WWII(cause of the second wave) : People came to accept the ideas of democracy  For example;  One-party system (i.e. Communist regime)

2)Global Economic Development of the 1960s  3 economic factors that affected the third wave:  1) the oil price hikes and Marxist-Leninist constraints  2) by the 1970s many countries had achieved overall levels of economic development that provided an economic basis for democracy  3) rapid economic growth in some countries destabilized authoritarian regimes

3)Religious Changes  Strong correlation exists between Western Christianity and democracy.  I.e. Christianity expanded in South Korea in the 1960s to 70s.  Christianity offered a surer doctrinal and institutional basis for opposing political repression.  Economic growth of catholic countries  Change “within” Catholic Church itself  Efforts by Pope on global base, and more locally by individual priests

4)Policies of “External Actors”  Governments and institutions of external to a country can influence democratization.  European institutions  US: policy toward promotion of human rights in other countries became more active in early 70s.  Carter and Reagan administration  Soviet Union  Mikhail Gorbachev

5)”Snowballing,” Demonstration effects  Contagion, diffusion, or snowballing, or domino effect of democratization from one country to another.  It shows that it can be done and stimulate the second movement.  It shows HOW it can be done.  Expansion of global communication was necessary.

To summarize…  Multiple factors contributed to the breakdown or weakening of authoritarian regimes during 1970s and 1980s.  Variety of factors influenced the emergence of democratic regimes during this period.  Last but not least…Democracies are created not by causes but by causers. Political leaders and publics have to act.