The 27 th Annual Conference International Association for Impact Assessment 3-9 June 2007, COEX Convention Center, Seoul, Korea Jae-Uk KIM, Dong-Kun LEE.

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Presentation transcript:

The 27 th Annual Conference International Association for Impact Assessment 3-9 June 2007, COEX Convention Center, Seoul, Korea Jae-Uk KIM, Dong-Kun LEE (Seoul National University, Korea) 5 June, 2007 Prediction of Plant Communities Using Regional Climate Model in Korea

2/37 1. Backgrounds 2. Objectives 3. Materials 4. Methods 5. Results and Discussion 6. Conclusion Contents

3/37 Global mean temperature near the Earth's surface rose 0.74±0.18°C during the past century. Climate models referenced by the IPCC project that global surface temperatures are likely to increase by 1.1 to 6.4 °C between 1990 and The effects of global warming is becoming more apparent on various parts of the world including dynamics in natural ecosystems. Backgrounds

4/37 Backgrounds ① Camellia japonica L. ① ② Sasa quelpaertensis Nakai ② ③ Quercus mongolica ③

5/37 To choose a suitable climate model in the Korea To verify connection between plant communities and environmental factors To predict potential distribution of Pinus densiflora, Quercus Spp., Alpine Plants and Evergreen Broad- Leaved Plants To assess a vulnerable area in climate change Objectives

6/37 Methods I

7/37 Methods II

8/37 Methods III

9/37 Materials-Climate Models AcronymCenterSRES scenarioModelTime period NIES/RAMS National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) NIES/RAMS RCM HCCPR Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research HadCM A2B2 CSIRO Australia’s Common Wealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization CSIRO-Mk A1A2B1B2 CCCma Canadian Center for Climate Modeling and Analysis CGCM A2B2 CCSR/NIES Center for Climate Research Studies (CCSR) National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) CCSR/NIES AGCM +CCSR OGCM A1A2B1B2 A2

10/37 Materials-Climate Models CCSR-NIES CGCM2 CSIRO-Mk2 HadCM3 NIES-RAMS General Circulation Model Regional Climate Model

11/37 Materials-SRES

12/37 Dominant Communities Ratio (%) Pinus densiflora 56.2 Quercus Spp Alpine Plants0.26 Evergreen Broad-Leaved Plants 0.16 Total : 170 communities Materials-Plant communities

13/37 Materials-Plant communities Dominant Communities Pinus densiflora Pinus densiflora (1) Quercus Spp. Quercus acutissima, Quercus aliena, Quercus dentata, Quercus grosseserrata, Quercus mongolica, Quercus serrata, Quercus variabilis (7) Alpine Plants Abies holophylla, Abies koreana, Abies nephrolepis, Betula ermanii, Betula platyphylla, Empetrum nigrum var. japonicum, Juniperus chinensis var. sargentii, Juniperus rigida, Pinus koraiensis, Pinus pumila, Rhododendron mucronulatum var. ciliatum, Taxus cuspidata, Thuja koraiensis, Thuja orientalis L. (14) Evergreen Broad-Leaved Plants Castanopsis cuspidata var. sieboldii, Castanopsis cuspidata var. thunbergii, Camellia japonica L., Cinnamomum japonicum, Daphniphyllum macropodum, Elaeagnus macrophylla, Ilex integra, Litsea japonica, Machilus thunbergii, Quercus acuta, Quercus myrsinaefolia (11)

14/37 CategoriesFactors (16) Climate Mean temperature (yearly, January, August, Spring, Summer, Fall, Winter), Total precipitation (yearly, Spring, Summer, Fall, Winter) Topography Elevation Index Warmth index, Coldness index, Holdridge index Materials-Environmental factors

15/37 Temperature Results-Current climate (1971~2000) Precipitation

16/37 HADCM3 GCM CSIRO-Mk2 GCM CGCM2 GCM CCSR/NIES GCM Results-Future climate (2050)

17/37 NIES/RAMS RCM (Temperature) Results-Future climate (2050) NIES/RAMS RCM (Precipitation)

18/37 Results-4GCMs vs 1RCM (1981~1990) Temperature Precipitation

19/37 RangesMeans Area 56.2 % Elevation (m) 1~1, Mean temperature ( ℃ ) 1.5~ Total precipitation ( ㎜ ) 971.2~1,741.51,252.3 Warmth index (month· ℃ ) 34.3~ Results- Pinus densiflora

20/37 Results- Pinus densiflora Pinus densiflora = ×DEM – ×P total ×T djf Present (1990) Simulated (1971~2000)

21/37 Results- Pinus densiflora NIESRAMS Predicted (2041~2050) CCSRNIES Predicted (2041~2050) CRIRO-Mk2 Predicted (2041~2050) HADCM3 Predicted (2041~2050) CGCM2 Predicted (2041~2050)

22/37 Results- Pinus densiflora Ratio (%) More Reduced 17.5 Reduced32.2 No change49.6 Expanded0.6 More Expanded 0.0

23/37 RangesMeans Area 30.4 % Elevation (m) 1~1, Mean temperature ( ℃ ) 2.0~ Total precipitation ( ㎜ ) 973.6~1,809.91,298.4 Warmth index (month· ℃ ) 36.8~ Results- Quercus Spp.

24/37 Results- Quercus Spp. Present (1990) Simulated (1971~2000) Quercus Spp. = ×CI – ×DEM – ×T min –

25/37 Results- Quercus Spp. CCSRNIES Predicted (2041~2050) CGCM2 Predicted (2041~2050) CRIRO-Mk2 Predicted (2041~2050) HADCM3 Predicted (2041~2050) NIESRAMS Predicted (2041~2050)

26/37 Results- Quercus Spp. Ratio (%) More Reduced 5.7 Reduced6.9 No change83.4 Expanded1.3 More Expanded 2.8

27/37 rangesmeans Area 0.26 % Elevation (m) 86~1,8241,024.1 Mean temperature ( ℃ ) 1.2~ Total precipitation ( ㎜ ) 1,019.2~1, ,346.7 Warmth index (month· ℃ ) 30.9~ Results-Alpine Plants

28/37 Results-Alpine Plants Present (1990) Simulated (1971~2000) Alpine plants = ×WI ×DEM – ×T total – ×T mam –

29/37 Results-Alpine Plants CCSRNIES Predicted (2041~2050) CGCM2 Predicted (2041~2050) HADCM3 Predicted (2041~2050) CRIRO-Mk2 Predicted (2041~2050) NIESRAMS Predicted (2041~2050)

30/37 Results-Alpine Plants Ratio (%) More Reduced 1.5 Reduced1.9 No change96.0 Expanded0.6 More Expanded -

31/37 rangesmeans Area 0.16 % Elevation (m) 1~ Mean temperature ( ℃ ) 10.9~ Total precipitation ( ㎜ ) 960.8~1,853.11,374.5 Warmth index (month· ℃ ) 84.9~ Results-Evergreen Broad-Leaved Plants

32/37 Results-Evergreen Broad-Leaved Plants Present (1990) Simulated (1971~2000) Evergreen Broad-Leaved Plants = ×CI – ×T min

33/37 Results-Evergreen Broad-Leaved Plants CCSRNIES Predicted (2041~2050) CGCM2 Predicted (2041~2050) CRIRO-Mk2 Predicted (2041~2050) HADCM3 Predicted (2041~2050) NIESRAMS Predicted (2041~2050)

34/37 Results-Evergreen Broad-Leaved Plants Ratio (%) More Reduced 0.3 Reduced0.3 No change89.7 Expanded5.3 More Expanded 4.4

35/37 Results-vulnerable area Ratio (%) More reduced Grade 12.8 Grade 23.3 Grade Grade No change Grade Grade 65.6 Grade 74.9 Grade 80.2 More expanded Grade 90.0

36/37 Conclusion Achievements To challenges associated with predicting and assessing the future climate using RCM distribution of communities to climate change in Korea Limitations and Considerations To examine the potential distribution of communities by correlating the environmental factors without reflecting the natural succession processes Variabilities of multiple RCM output results under various climate change scenarios were not sufficiently considered Ground truth field surveys to enhance the accuracy of the results were not conducted