CLIMATE CHANGE, CHANCES AND RISKS FOR HYDRO POWER PRODUCTION IN AUSTRIA Long-term trends and their impact on hydro-production Malnisio, 19 September 2008

Chances and Risks for hydro production Hackl / Verbund-AHP Nr. 2 Power Plants of AHP VERBUND – AHP (AUSTRIAN HYDRO POWER)

Chances and Risks for hydro production Hackl / Verbund-AHP Nr. 3 VERBUND – AHP (AUSTRIAN HYDRO POWER)

Chances and Risks for hydro production Hackl / Verbund-AHP Nr. 4 Freudenau (Vienna): run-of-river plant on the Danube commissioning date1998 bottle-neck-capacity 172 MW standard production 1052 GWh/a Malta bundle ::2 Power stations with 7 reservoirs commissioning date 1979 bottle-neck-capacity 890 MW standard producition 906 GWh/a Power Plants of AHP VERBUND – AHP (AUSTRIAN HYDRO POWER)

Chances and Risks for hydro production Hackl / Verbund-AHP Nr. 5 Following reduced production compared to expectations in run-of-river-plants in the south of Austria, AHP started to investigate on the reasons. This investigation was coordinated by the department of technical planning. Dipl.-Ing. Dr. Hackl has been working in Verbund-AHP since 1983 and since 1996 in the dept. of technical planning and plant coordination. Key aspects of his activity: Automation, mathematical methods, accounting, databases, key performance indicators). LOGO AHP Verbund Italia SpA coordinates all the activities of Verbund in Italy. Verbund Italia presently has a shareholding of 41% in Sorgenia SpA. Dr. Markus Hofer is Member of the Board of Verbund Italia and of Sorgenia SpA. THE SURVEY ON CLIMATE CHANGE

Chances and Risks for hydro production Hackl / Verbund-AHP Nr. 6 CLIMATE CHANGE, CHANCES/RISKS FOR HYDRO POWER IN AUSTRIA What is climate change ? = any long-term significant change in the “average weather” that a given region experiences. As long as earth exists, climate has been changing. Which phenomena could be observed during the last decades? Increase of average-temperature Changes of precipitation Increase of special phenomena (strong rainfall, tornados) Decrease in hydro production in the south of Austria

Chances and Risks for hydro production Hackl / Verbund-AHP Nr. 7 CLIMATE CHANGE, CHANCES/RISKS FOR HYDRO POWER IN AUSTRIA climate change vs. global warming The notion global warming was formed during the last two decades of the 20th century and very often is used in the same sense as climate change. Whereas climate change describes the natural changes of climate over long periods, global warming means the actual man-made changes of climate.

Chances and Risks for hydro production Hackl / Verbund-AHP Nr. 8 CLIMATE CHANGE, CHANCES/RISKS FOR HYDRO POWER IN AUSTRIA Climate changes and global warming are omnipresent key-words in the media (thunderstorms, tornados, melting-off of glaciers, etc.) Scientific refurbishment and documentation predominantly done by IPCC IPCC: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was implemented in November 1988 by the environmental program of the United Nations (UNEP) and the world organization for meteorology (WMO). The main tasks of IPCC are to: describe actual standard of knowledge on all aspects connected with climate change estimate of the consequences of climate change for environment and society propose realistic strategies to avoid these changes or to adapt to these changes

Chances and Risks for hydro production Hackl / Verbund-AHP Nr. 9 Development of Temperature and Percipitation - IPCC grafics until 2070 CLIMATE CHANGE, CHANCES/RISKS FOR HYDRO POWER IN AUSTRIA

Chances and Risks for hydro production Hackl / Verbund-AHP Nr. 10 CLIMATE CHANGE, CHANCES/RISKS FOR HYDRO POWER IN AUSTRIA Documented effects of climate changes on hydro power in Alpine regions: Increase of temperature yields to melting-off of glaciers Snow covers are melting earlier in spring Precipitation increases in winter and decreases in summer Precipitation in winter more often in form of rain instead of snow Due to the increase of temperature increase of evaporation - and not necessarily of the discharge of rivers.

Chances and Risks for hydro production Hackl / Verbund-AHP Nr. 11 CLIMATE CHANGE, CHANCES/RISKS FOR HYDRO POWER IN AUSTRIA Man-made impacts (besides global warming) on hydro power: Dams to protect communities from floods increase the danger for downstream riparian communities and power plants Transformed use of land (for instance deforestation for skiing) decreases the ability of the soil to store water Covering land with concrete for streets and buildings accelerate the discharge of rain Storage power plants help to store floods and to shift discharge from rainy periods to dry period.

Chances and Risks for hydro production Hackl / Verbund-AHP Nr. 12 average discharges on Danube (plant Greifenstein) CLIMATE CHANGE, CHANCES/RISKS FOR HYDRO POWER IN AUSTRIA

Chances and Risks for hydro production Hackl / Verbund-AHP Nr. 13 storage effects and climate changes discharges in Greifenstein below 1200 m³/s per month LESS LOW-FLOW PERIODS ON THE DANUBE (GREIFENSTEIN)

Chances and Risks for hydro production Hackl / Verbund-AHP Nr. 14 Danube, Drau, Mur, Enns and Inn are the most important rivers for Verbund- AHP. Except the small shift from summer to winter, no significant changes were observed in the rivers located north of the Alps. Therefore investigation was limited to the river Drau in Carinthia. The hydrographic department of the federal government in Carinthia registered a decrease of precipitation: CLIMATE CHANGES – EFFECTS ON VERBUND-AHP?

Chances and Risks for hydro production Hackl / Verbund-AHP Nr. 15 Trends of percipitation in Carinthia 1900 to 2001 PERCIPITATION IN CARINTHIA SINCE 1900

Chances and Risks for hydro production Hackl / Verbund-AHP Nr % in June average discharges in Rosegg per month DISCHARGE OF DRAU IN THE RUN-OF-RIVER-PLANT ROSEGG

Chances and Risks for hydro production Hackl / Verbund-AHP Nr. 17 Less water available means less production. Challenge for AHP: Can a sustainable trend be observed? Do we have to adapt our key figures ? CLIMATE CHANGES – EFFECTS ON VERBUND-AHP?

Chances and Risks for hydro production Hackl / Verbund-AHP Nr. 18 HYDRO COEFFICIENT IN AUSTRIA OVER 40 YEARS

Chances and Risks for hydro production Hackl / Verbund-AHP Nr. 19 HYDRO COEFFICIENT IN AUSTRIA OVER 80 YEARS

Chances and Risks for hydro production Hackl / Verbund-AHP Nr. 20 The data of the last 80 years, do not show a specific trend for the sum of our run-of-river power plants in Austria. For small areas - as for instance Carinthia or Friuli - larger seasonal fluctuation occurs repeatedly. However, it is not possible to deduce sustainable trends from these fluctuations in smaller areas. RESULTS OF INVESTIGATIONS OF AHP

Chances and Risks for hydro production Hackl / Verbund-AHP Nr. 21 Conclusion 1.Man-made effects are increasing. 2.We expect more precipitation in the north of the Alps and reduction of precipitation in the south, more precipitation in winter, less in summer. 3.In Alpine regions the effects of global warming are mitigated with respect to hydro production. For hydro power production there is no sustainable trend for the whole Alpine region. CLIMATE CHANGE, CHANCES/RISKS FOR HYDRO POWER IN AUSTRIA

Chances and Risks for hydro production Hackl / Verbund-AHP Nr. 22 Grazie per l‘attenzione!