2012 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, University of North Carolina, USA.

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2012 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, University of North Carolina, USA

ACTUAL STORMS EXCEEDED THE FORECAST FORECAST: 15 NAMED STORMS WITH 4-8 BECOMING HURRICANES

ACTUAL: TWENTY NAMED STORMS; 10 HURRICANES

NAMED STORMS IN 2012 ALBERTO - Tropical storm; May 19 BERYL - Tropical storm; May 27 CHRIS – Hurricane; June 21 DEBBY – Tropical storm; June 23 ERNESTO –Hurricane; Aug 3 FLORENCE –Tropical storm: Aug 5 GORDON –Hurricane, August 16

NAMED STORMS FOR 2012 HELENE –Tropical Storm, Aug. 19 ISAAC – Hurricane, August 21 JOYCE –Tropical Storm, Aug. 25 KIRK –Tropical Storm. Aug. 27 LESLIE –Hurricane, Sept. 5 MICHAEL –Hurricane, Sept. 5 NADINE – Hurricane, Sept. 12

NAMED STORMS IN 2012 OSCAR – Tropical Storm; Oct. 4 PATTY – Tropical Storm; Oct. 11 RAFAEL – Hurricane; October 12 SANDY– Hurricane; October 22 TONY – Tropical Storm; Oct. 24 VALERIE– Did not happen WILLIAM – Did not happen

TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO --- FIRST STORM OF 2012 SEASON FORMS OFF SOUTH CAROLINA COAST May 19-21, 2012

ALBERTO ARRIVED 2 WEEKS BEFORE THE 2012 SEASON BEGAN  Located about 140 miles east-southeast of Charleston, SC, Alberto had sustained winds of 100 kph (60 mph)  As expected, Alberto turned northward and brought rain to the east coast for several days.

ALBERTO: MAY 19, 2012

ALBERTO: MAY 20, 2012

ALBERTO’S POSITION: MAY  On Sunday, Alberto was 120 miles south of Cape Fear, NC with sustained winds of 83 kph (50 mph)  On Monday, Alberto began to turn eastward, indicating that it will likely stay in the Atlantic Ocean and die there.

SURF BOARDING IN MIAMI THANKS TO ALBERTO: MAY 21, 2012

TROPICAL STORM BERYL --- SECOND STORM OF 2012 SEASON FORMED OFF NORTH FLORIDA COAST May 27-28, 2012

BERYL: MAY 28, 2012

BERYL’S POSITION: MAY 28  Early on Monday morning (12:10 AM), Tropical Storm Beryl made landfall near Jacksonville Beach, FL with near- hurricane winds of 115 kph (70 mph).  A rain-maker, Beryl, dumped cm (4-8 inches) of rain; a welcome relief for the drought-stricken region.  Beryl weakened quickly

BERYL: A RAINMAKER  Beryl became a rainmaker as it weakened and moved northward along the USA’s east coast, complicating the Memorial Day holiday traffic.

BERYL: PROJECTED PATH

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS - -- BECAME FIRST HURRICANE OF 2012 SEASON NO THREAT TO LAND DURING SHORT LIFE June 21, 2012

HURRICANE CHRIS Chris had 120 kph (75 mph) winds and was located about 625 miles (1005 km) southeast of Cape Race, Newfound- land, Canada. It was moving to the northeast at 32 kph (20 mph) with a minimum central pressure of 987 millibars.

CHRIS: FIRST HURRICANE OF 2012 SEASON

CHRIS (NO THREAT TO LAND), AND THE PRE-DEBBY DEPRESSION

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY --- FOURTH STORM OF 2012 SEASON FORMED IN GULF SOUTHWEST OF FLORIDA FIRST TIME IN HISTORY FOR FOUR NAMED STORMS BEFORE JULY 1ST June 23, 2012

DEBBY: DIRECTION AND INTENSITY UNCERTAIN: JUNE 23

DEBBY: ANTICIPATORY ACTIONS; JUNE 24 Debby expected to become a CAT I hurricane Storm warnings issued from Texas to Florida Oil rigs in gulf of Mexico begin to shut down production and plan evacuations Coastal States begin to implement emergency response plans

DEBBY: DIRECTION AND INTENSITY STILL UNCERTAIN: JUNE 24

On June 24 th, Debby dumped up to 60 cm (24 inches) of rain on parts of Florida and spawned some isolated tornadoes The center of the storm continued to be essentially stationary, increasing the likelihood of being a big rainmaker

DEBBY CAN’T DECIDE: THE PRE- FERRED MODEL 10 AM JUNE 24

DEBBY FINALLY DECIDES: IT’S EAST, NOT WEST; JUNE 25

FLORIDA’S GOVERNOR, RICK SCOTT, DECLARES STATE OF EMERGENCY MONDAY, JUNE 25

DEBBY: FLOODING IN CEDAR KEY, FLORIDA: JUNE 25

DEBBY: FLOODING; JUNE 25

DEBBY: FLOODING IN CLEARWATER, FL; JUNE 25

Tuesday, June 26 Debby, barely a tropical storm, finally made landfall Tuesday afternoon near Steinhatchee in the Big Bend area, with a 60 cm (2 foot) storm surge and sustained winds near 66 kph (40 mph).

INITIAL IMPACTS IN FLORIDA Four straight days of rain The storm left 29,000 people without power across the central and northern parts of the state. Mandatory evacuation ordered for 14,000 to 20,000 people living between the Anclote and Pithlachascotee Rivers.

INITIAL IMPACTS IN FLORIDA The capital, Tallahassee, was cutoff from Jacksonville due to flooding of the Interstate Highway Debby was expected to bring another cm (4 to 8 inches) of rain as it moved across Florida, possibly strengthening again after reaching the Atlantic Ocean

Wednesday, June 27 Debby is expected to cross the state and head into the Atlantic on Wednesday afternoon.

JULY 14 NOTE:: Experts are now saying that 2012 is turning out to be an EL NINO YEAR (i.e., a warmer Pacific and a cooler Atlantic than was the case in 2011)

A QUIET PERIOD JULY 8 – AUGUST 2

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO --- FIFTH STORM OF 2012 SEASON SPEEDING TOWARDS THE CARIBBEAN The storm is centered about 90 miles (145 kilometers) west of St. Lucia. And moving west near 21 mph (34 kph). August 3, 2012

TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE --- SIXTH STORM OF 2012 SEASON FORMED IN EASTERN ATLANTIC The storm, which was moving westward and 515 miles (830 km) west of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands, died quickly August 5, 2012.

TS ERNESTO’S LOCATION AUGUST 3, 2012

TS ERNESTO’S PROJECTED PATH: AUGUST 4, 2012

TS ERNESTO BECAME HURRICANE NEAR HONDURAS: AUG 6

Ernesto was a weak hurricane when it made its first landfall late Tuesday (Aug. 7) near the cruise ship port of Mahahual in Yucatan,

Ernesto’s second landfall on Thursday (Aug 9) was as a “Rainmaker” near the Mexican oil port city of Coatzacoalcos Three people killed

WHAT HAPPENED AFTER LANDFALL? H eavy rains continued into Friday night as Ernesto’s winds declined quickly to 40 mph (65 kph)..

VERA CRUZ: FLOODING FROM ERNESTO AUG 10

TROPICAL STORM GORDON --- SEVENTH STORM OF 2012 SEASON FORMED IN EASTERN ATLANTIC The storm is moving westward at present. August 16, 2012.

TS GORDON: AUG 16

TROPICAL STORM GORDON --- EIGHTH STORM OF 2012 SEASON FORMED IN EASTERN ATLANTIC The storm is moving westward at present. August 16, 2012.

TROPICAL STORM--HURRICANE ISAAC --- NINETH STORM OF 2012 SEASON HEADING FOR CARIBBEAN AND POSSIBLY FLORIDA The storm could affect the Republican National Convention August 21, 2012.

ISAAC: FROM TS ON AUG, 21 TO HURRICANE ON AUG. 26

CAT I HURRICANE ISAAC, A HUGE RAINMAKER, WAS DEVASTATING ALONG THE GULF COAST, AND ESPECIALLY IN LOUISIANA SEE SEPARATE FILE

TS JOYCE: AUG 25

TS KIRK: SEPT. 1

LESLIE: FROM A TS ON SEPT 3 TO HURRICANE ON SEPT 5

ISAAC COULD HAVE RETURNED AS TS NADINE, BUT DIDN’T

The 2012 season is lagging behind past seasons: By Sept. 5, 2005, we had three major hurricanes (Dennis, Emily, and Katrina),and by Sept. 5, 2011, we had one major hurricane (Katia). This year, we have had none.