Template Williston Basin Oil and Gas Emission Inventory: Midterm Year Activity Forecasts ENVIRON International Corporation April 16, 2013.

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Presentation transcript:

Template Williston Basin Oil and Gas Emission Inventory: Midterm Year Activity Forecasts ENVIRON International Corporation April 16, 2013

Outline Activity forecasting method Activity forecasts by basin subareas Oil and gas takeaway infrastructure

Forecasting Method: Overview Primary Data Sources: –IHS Oil and Gas Database (historical data) –Operator input (drilling forecasts, well decline) Secondary sources for validation –2012 Bentek Study (gas and oil production)

Forecasting Method: Basin Subareas

Forecasting Method: Flow Chart Future Years Drilling Schedule (2012 – 2015) Midterm Year Production from Wells Added After Base Year 2011 Midterm Year Production from Wells in Operation in Base Year 2011 and Earlier 2011 Production (source: IHS database) Well Decline Curve Midterm Year Production from All Wells

Sample Oil Well Decline Curve Source: Williston Basin: Greasing the Gears for Growth in North Dakota. NDPA/NDIC Study. BENTEK Energy pdfhttp://ndpipelines.files.wordpress.com/2012/07/bentek_ogrp-slides pdf

Sample Gas Well Decline Curve Source: Williston Basin: Greasing the Gears for Growth in North Dakota. NDPA/NDIC Study. BENTEK Energy pdfhttp://ndpipelines.files.wordpress.com/2012/07/bentek_ogrp-slides pdf

Activity Forecasts By Subarea Drilling – Oil well spuds – Gas well spuds Active well counts – Oil wells – Gas wells Liquids Production – Crude oil – Condensate Gas Production – Associated gas – Natural gas

2011 Subarea Contributions

Bakken Subarea Drilling Oil well spuds

Bakken Subarea Drilling Gas well spuds

Bakken Subarea Active Wells Oil Wells

Bakken Subarea Active Wells Gas Wells

Bakken Subarea Crude Oil Production Oil Wells

Bakken Subarea Condensate Production Gas Wells

Bakken Subarea Associated Gas Production Oil wells

Bakken Subarea Natural Gas Production Gas wells

Cedar Creek Anticline Drilling Oil well spuds

Cedar Creek Anticline Drilling Gas well spuds

Cedar Creek Anticline Number of Active Wells Oil Wells

Cedar Creek Anticline Number of Active Wells Gas Wells

Cedar Creek Anticline Crude Oil Production Oil Wells

Cedar Creek Anticline Condensate Production Gas Wells

Cedar Creek Anticline Associated Gas Production Oil wells

Cedar Creek Anticline Natural Gas Production Gas wells

All Remaining Counties Drilling Oil well spuds

All Remaining Counties Drilling Gas well spuds

All Remaining Counties Number of Active Wells Oil Wells

All Remaining Counties Number of Active Wells Gas Wells

All Remaining Counties Crude Oil Production Oil Wells

All Remaining Counties Condensate Production Gas Wells

All Remaining Counties Associated Gas Production Oil wells

All Remaining Counties Natural Gas Production Gas wells

Infrastructure Development: Casinghead Gas Flaring Data from 2009 to Jan 2013 from ND DMR

Infrastructure Development: Oil Direct to pipeline infrastructure?

Infrastructure Development: Oil Pipeline vs. Rail source: NDPA