Puyallup School District Trends & Projections Presented to the Puyallup School Board W. Les Kendrick January 2009.

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Presentation transcript:

Puyallup School District Trends & Projections Presented to the Puyallup School Board W. Les Kendrick January 2009

Outline Enrollment trends in Puyallup and the Region Demographic trends affecting enrollment Projections

Puyallup Enrollment Trend P223 Enrollment OCTOBER Excludes Chief Leschi Students and Full-Time Running Start Students

Puyallup Elementary Enrollment P223 Enrollment Excludes Chief Leschi Students

Puyallup Junior High Enrollment P223 Enrollment Excludes Chief Leschi Students

Puyallup High School Enrollment P223 Enrollment Exclude Chief Leschi Students and Full Time Running Start Students

Pierce County Public Schools Enrollment Trend (October)

Puyallup’s Share of County K-12 Public School Enrollment (October P223 Enrollment)

Pierce County Districts: Change in Enrollment Net Change in Enrollment: 275

Key Demographic Trends to Watch Births and the K-12 Population Population Growth in the District New Housing Growth

Projected Pierce County Births My forecast based on birth rates and the State population forecast for Pierce County Projected Births: Next year’s cohort

Puyallup District Population Forecast Based on PSRC Neighborhood Forecast for Areas in and Around the District and the Latest Population Estimates for the District

County K-12 Public School Forecast Based on Projected Changes in the Age 5-19 Population

Back of the Envelope Calculations Where is Enrollment Headed in 2020?

What about next year? Things to watch Housing market is a big factor Virtual schools? Private schools and the economy

New Single Family Homes Sold in the Puyallup School District: Source: New Home Trends *As of December 5, 2008

New Single Family Homes Currently for Sale in the Puyallup School District Source: New Home Trends

Enrollment Forecast Low, Medium & High

Low, Medium & High Headcount Forecast Oct-2009

Alternative Projections Excludes Chief Leschi and Full-Time Running Start

Summary of the Enrollment Picture as of Today Enrollment is projected to remain flat and possibly decline in Enrollment might also be down or show very little growth in Long range enrollment to 2020 is still projected to grow due to increases in county births and housing and population increases in the District. Enrollment in 2020 is projected to be somewhere between 22,500 (Low) and 24,900 (High).