IPCC-Working Group II IPCC-Working Group II Main findings and the way forward ASP 2007 Colloquium: Regional Biochemistry Patricia Romero Lankao ISSE-SERE April 2007

Outline  Relevant findings of Working Group II report & chapter on Industry, settlement and society  Some thoughts on the way forward for SERE-NCAR

Effects of global warming are apparent on every continent  regions of snow, ice and frozen ground  hydrological systems  leaf-unfolding, bird migration, egg- laying  marine and freshwater biological systems Changes in the Mt Kilimanjaro ice cap over time.

In many cases climate change will exacerbate existing water problems - Increases in people living in severely stressed river basins - Increased risk of floods and droughts in many areas - Those that get their water from snow-pack (e.g. Western U.S.) - Drought-prone regions - Areas with already heavily utilized water resources (e.g. South East U.S.)

FOOD, FIBRE AND FOREST PRODUCTS  Temperate regions, moderate warming benefits cereal crop and pasture yields  Even slight warming decreases yields in seasonally dry and tropical regio n s  Risks of fires, pest and pathogen outbreak Increased frequency of heat stress, droughts & floods negatively affects crop yields & livestock beyond the impacts of mean climate change

Many millions more people will be flooded in the coasts CLIMATE CHANGE Sea levelTemperatureRun-offCO 2 concentration External Marine Influences WavesStorms Coastal System External Terrestrial Influences Societal Sub-system Natural Sub-system Risks of flooding and coastal erosion will be made worse by increased human development pressures on coasts In North America, current adaptation is uneven & readiness to manage increased exposure to sea-level rise, severe weather, and storm surge is low

Urban poverty & vulnerability related not only to:  such outcomes as incapacity to cope with multiple stresses  but also to lack of access to adequate & stable income sources & asset base good-quality housing Delhi

As well as lack of access to:  Adequate provision of public infrastructure & basic services  Safety (governmental & social) nets to mitigate risks  Protection of poorer groups’ legal rights  Voice & power within politic systems & bureaucratic structures Mexico City Buenos Aires

Urban development can exacerbate people’s vulnerability  Expanding onto risk- prone sites  Concentrating activities with disaster potential  High density populations & solid liquid & wastes  Large impermeable surfaces & buildings  Changes in surrounding areas => risks of floods Yet, urbanization not a driver; rather a result of other drivers - People moving in response to better economic opportunities - Investment decisions by enterprises & governments - The lack of prospects in peoples home farms or villages

 “Adaptation to climate change is already taking place, but on a limited basis  “Adaptation measures are seldom undertaken in response to climate change alone  “There are substantial limits and barriers to adaptation  “Adaptation alone is not expected to cope with all the projected effects of climate change  “Adaptive capacity is uneven across and within societies (context specific)

The way forward: tensions & options  User needs/ scientific interest  Specific context/ models/theories  Climate change/multiple stresses  NCAR Earth System modeling

Possible research paths The PIK Climber-2 model Source: R. Leemans (2006) Provides the big picture of global environmental change Lacks accurate representation of drivers and stresses at the regional/ local level Does not necessarily serve the “immediate” needs of decision makers and users at regional to local levels

Possible research paths  Down scale global models Costly (human and financial resources) Costly (human and financial resources)  Context specific assessments of multiple stresses Highly fragmentary Highly fragmentary Competing paradigms Competing paradigms Lack of comparativeness Lack of comparativeness NARCCAP Domain

Select key cases in terms of their trajectories of change ED= environmental degradation, W= wealth, WB = human well being. Source: Kasperson (et. al. 1985)

Models & theories Source: Kasperson (2007)

Models & theories Source: Kasperson (2007)

Thank you!