Local nuclear war, global starvation Brian Toon © 2009 Scientific American Inc

New nuclear states continue to appear

Even small nuclear states can have many warheads NWS DeFacto Israel, 116 ( ) Pakistan, 52 (44-62), 1998 South Africa 7, dismantled 1989, 1979? North Korea, 10?, 2007 India, 85 ( ), 1974, 1998

Destructive power of nuclear weapons: Hiroshima, ground zero

Fires in Hiroshima after the atomic blast Fire storm in Hiroshima about three hours after the explosion An oily, sooty, radioactive “black rain” fell on Hiroshima after the explosion

Smoke is observed to go into the upper troposphere after large fires The Chisholm (Alberta) PyroCb 28 May 2001 Fromm & Servranckx, (GRL, 2003)

Soot Generation from 50, 15 kt Weapons

Smoke injected into upper troposphere from regional conflict rapidly spreads

Global climate change unprecedented in recorded human history

Mann et al.,, Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 759 (1999); Temperature decline following regional nuclear war exceeds temperature changes during the last 1000 years Year

Northern Hemisphere Growing Season Shortened by up to 1 Month

Precipitation drops 10% globally, more locally

Altitude, km Stratospheric Temperatures Increase

Global ozone loss following a regional war creates a near global ozone hole. Mills et al. PNAS, 2008

Summary A regional nuclear war would: Reduce temperatures to lowest levels in 1000 years and shorten growing seasons at midlatitudes Reduce rainfall in the tropics Destroy the ozone layer at mid- and high latitudes

Erupted April degrees C temperature drop Dramatic shortening of growing season Tambora Volcano

Chronic Malnutrition Today 1,800-2,200 calories minimum daily requirement 800 million people at or below this level of daily intake

Great Bengal Famine of 1943 Food production declined only 5% Actually 13% higher than 1941 when there was no famine 3 million people died International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War

1 billion dead from starvation alone?

Epidemic Disease Plague Cholera Malaria Typhus

…further use of nuclear weapons?

Nuclear Warheads peaked in 1986 R.S. Norris, H.M. Kristensen, (2009).

Smoke generated by weapons of 100 kt yield China Russia U.S.

Robock et al.,2007 Surface temperature declines after global conflict to ice age conditions Year Ice age temperatures

Daily minimum temperatures for Iowa and the Ukraine remain below freezing for a year or more after global war Robock et al.,2007

Precipitation for Iowa after a global war reduced up to 90%

Summary The use of the SORT or START arsenals would: Reduce global temperatures to ice age conditions Reduce global precipitation by 50%