IAFS 1000 Nuclear Proliferation in South Asia. Outline 1998 Nuclear Tests Background of Indian and Pakistani Nuclear Programs Political Context.

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Presentation transcript:

IAFS 1000 Nuclear Proliferation in South Asia

Outline 1998 Nuclear Tests Background of Indian and Pakistani Nuclear Programs Political Context

Site of Indian Nuclear Tests in Thar Desert

Nuclear Proliferation in South Asia Indian nuclear tests: May 11 and 13, 1998 Diplomatic efforts to stop Pakistani tests Pakistan nuclear tests: May 28 & 30, 1998 Immediate economic sanctions on both India and Pakistan

Site of Pakistani Nuclear Tests at Koh Kambaran mountain

Indian Background Tension with China 1974 “peaceful nuclear explosion” (PNE) Today: ~ nuclear weapons Goal: regional stability

Pakistani Background Nuclear weapons capability by Today: ~ nuclear weapons Goals: overcoming conventional inferiority, keeping regional balance of power

New Pakistani Reactor Construction (2011)

Delivery Systems Strategic missile systems Fighter plane option

Political Context: India CIA surprise US inaction Motives: --Matching China --Hindu nationalism, political needs --Maintaining advantage over Pakistan

Political Context: India (cont.) Desire for international respect Resentment of NPT Initial euphoria, then increasing protests

Anti-Nuclear Protests in India

Political Context: Pakistan No real alternative? Need to satisfy nationalist demands: “We have settled the score” Oct 1999 coup PM Nawaz Sharif and Gen. Pervez Musharraf

Nuclear Hopes and Fears Pakistan Army: better able to negotiate with India? Fears of radical Islamic elements within Pakistan Army Fear of nukes falling into terrorist hands

Conclusions? Greater stability? Impact of proliferation in South Asia is still unclear