Oklahoma Agricultural Land Value Update Roger Sahs, Extension Specialist OSU Department of Agricultural Economics

OK Land Values by Region, 2012 Panhandle Tracts 39 Size 595 $/Acre $809 % Chg West-Northwest Tracts 171 Size 250 $/Acre $1310 % Chg +5.2 North Central Tracts 112 Size 170 $/Acre $1608 % Chg +6.5 Northeast Tracts 286 Size 284 $/Acre $1634 % Chg -3.0 East-Northeast Tracts 33 Size 195 $/Acre $1828 % Chg -6.0 South Central Tracts 101 Size 237 $/Acre $1574 % Chg -2.2 Southeast Tracts 205 Size 214 $/Acre $1548 % Chg +4.6 State Averages Tracts 1114 Size 257 $/Acre $1468 % Chg +2.1 Southwest Tracts 167 Size 214 $/Acre $1172 % Chg +12.6

Recent Trends in Oklahoma Land Values Source:

Oklahoma Cropland vs Pastureland Prices Source: Upward but not steady climb in values. “Boom to Bust” was only 30 years ago. Major increase in values in recent years.

Oklahoma Cropland and Pastureland Prices Nominal vs Inflation Adjusted (base year 2000) Source: Cropland Pasture

Average Value Tracts >= 40 Acres and <= $3000/Acre Source:

Average Value Tracts >= 40 Acres and <= $6000/Acre Source:

Land prices going ahead… Changes in the environment – Farm Bill – Domestic economy – Global economy – Elections/policy – Interest rates Recreational uses – Wildlife habitat, wildlife population Development uses – Population growth – Per capita income Agriculture – Input prices – Cattle, wheat/feedgrain prices – Yields – Efficiency, productivity – Continued drought

Key Land drivers looking ahead… Recent commodity prices and farm incomes Interest rate levels Financial health of current buyers

$/bushel$ in Billions Oklahoma Wheat Price and Net Farm Income Source: ERS and NASS

Source: KC Federal Reserve Bank, July 2013

Financial Strength 2013 Balance Sheet of the U.S. Farming Sector (forecast) Total Farm Assets: Assets: $3.010 trillion Total Farm Debt: $308 Billion Total Farm Equity: Equity: $2.702 trillion Debt‐to‐Equity Ratio: 11.4 Low! Debt‐to‐Asset Ratio: 10.2 Low! Bottom-Line: Strong financial fundamentals for the Ag sector. Minimal Debt Leverage and Low Financial Stress! Source: Economic Research Service, August 2013

Source: KC Federal Reserve Bank, July 2013

Resources Agecon.okstate.edu/oklandvalues Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank – – Choose RESEARCH & DATA, then Economic Review or Agricultural Credit Survey USDA Ag Land Value Data and Reports – s_and_Cash_Rents/index.asp s_and_Cash_Rents/index.asp