Results for Market Forecast June 2007 Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc All rights reserved.

Overview Crude forecast was almost an exact match with actual market movement! For three months of doing monthly forecasts we’ve had 1 out of 3 forecasts for Crude, Stock market and Dollar almost an exact match with actual market movement. A new forecasting method was developed which should dramatically increase reliability. June shows a.91 correlation forecast vs. actual for all 3 forecasts (previous method.42). Copyright 2007, A New Story Foundation, Inc.

Crude Oil Futures (Aug.) Almost exact match with both old and new forecast methods! (actuals are June open to close each week)

Crude Oil w/ Price Chart This is the daily August crude oil futures price chart superimposed on the previous graph.

Crude Oil - range Forecast vs. actuals for range also very close.

Dow Jones Futures Old method not too good, new method pretty close!

Dow Jones w/ Price Chart This is the daily Dow Jones futures price chart superimposed on the previous graph.

S&P Cycles – “O” Model S&P futures daily price chart followed the new “O” model fairly well. Slight shift 2 nd half of the month indicative of major trend change in progress. This model’s forecast is independent of news, weather, and current market changes.

S&P Cycles – “O” composite This is the S&P daily futures price over the composite of all 4 “O” cycles. This model forecasts timing and direction, but not degree, which it did very well.

Dow Jones Futures - range Forecast vs. actuals for range very similar.

U.S. Dollar Index Not as good with the dollar. New method better than old.

U.S Dollar Index w/ Price Chart This is the daily U.S. Dollar Index futures price chart superimposed on the previous graph.

US Dollar - range Forecast vs. actuals not very close for the dollar.

Lessons Learned Crude forecast is too close to have been “chance,” we are doing something right. New methodology which will be incorporated into the July forecast, greatly reduces the need for subjective interpretation, the major cause of errors. Previous method forecast vs. June actuals has a correlation coefficient of.42. The new method gives.91 (statistical significance p<.01 for n=12).

Disclaimer A New Story Foundation is not a brokerage firm nor are we professional investment advisors. Please consult the appropriate person/firm for specific investment advice. More information can be found on our website at

Thanks for your interest.