Scanning the Library A Tyro’s Guide Greg Carlson, Frances T. Bourne Jacaranda Public Library, Venice, FL ALA/New Orleans, 2006.

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Presentation transcript:

Scanning the Library A Tyro’s Guide Greg Carlson, Frances T. Bourne Jacaranda Public Library, Venice, FL ALA/New Orleans, 2006

___________________Scanning the Library What is Futuring? Cornish: “The systematic exploration of what might happen, so people can decide what they want to make happen” Foresight Engine Forecasting, not predicting

___________________Scanning the Library What futuring is NOT Science fiction Planning A path to certainty

___________________Scanning the Library Why engage in futuring? Already practitioners Antidote to determinism Ethical dimension Competitive edge Perspective change

___________________Scanning the Library Futuring methodologies and concepts: Visioning Scanning Trend analysis, projection, monitoring Wild Cards Scenario-building Delphi method

___________________Scanning the Library Visioning Vision of the future that articulates an individual or group’s closely held values, aspirations, and goals, in a statement of preferred future outcomes.

_____________Scanning Library “The library envisions a community where intergenerational harmony thrives. Library collections and services will emphasize economic opportunity and foster the pursuit, at any age, of fulfillment and quality of life. Library spaces and programs will facilitate intergenerational dialog and learning.”

___________________Scanning the Library Scanning Refers to a sustained effort to identify significant changes in the world beyond the organization or group performing the (environmental) scan.

___________________Scanning the Library Trend Analysis, Projection, Monitoring Indicate a pattern of change over time in things significant to the observer.

___________________Scanning the Library Analysis–nature, causes, development, impact; e.g., is it a fad? Projection–plotting or graphing trend; e.g., inflation rate or computer chips Monitoring–especially important indicator; e.g., adoption of new media

___________________Scanning the Library Wild Cards Unexpected events that carry major consequences, whether catastrophic or benestrophic.

___________________Scanning the Library Scenarios Stories about alternative or possible futures crafted for foresight purposes.

___________________Scanning the Library Impact/Probability Matrix (Garland) High probability brewing storm business as usual High impactLow impact wild card flash in the pan Low probability

___________________Scanning the Library Delphi Method Iterative process where expert opinion is driven toward consensus—polling good alternative.

___________________Scanning the Library Why stop there? Idea mapping Backcasting Modeling/Simulations Gaming

___________________Scanning the Library Recap Futures research exists to create foresight Systematic, interdisciplinary approach that empowers the individual Decisions we make today affect our tomorrows—strive for a preferred future Accessible to anyone

___________________Scanning the Library “(D)eveloping our futuring skills will sharpen our ability to assess the probabilities, anticipate consequences, and choose ever-wiser courses of action that can lead us to the best possible future.” – Edward Cornish, Futuring: The Exploration of the Future Thanks for your kind attention