Hanoi, January 29 th 2015 RODOLFO SONCINI-SESSA DEI – Politecnico di Milano IMRR Project 14 – First policy design results INTEGRATED AND SUSTAINABLE WATER MANAGEMENT OF RED-THAI BINH RIVER SYSTEM IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

The policy design GA

The Design Problem (It)(It) scenario (I t, θ) scenario

Design scenario: DS1 20 years of regular flows (1/5/ /4/2010) 19 years - 5 extreme flood years (red) -5 extreme drought years (yellow) -9 normal years interposed (blue) regular indicators extreme indicators J F, J H, J S J eF, J eS

Extreme events

Design scenario Extreme years

Water supply From IMRR wiki website:IMRR wiki website 7 i ws:3 JSJS

Flood control From IMRR wiki website:IMRR wiki website i Fl:1 8 JFJF

Hydropower From IMRR wiki website:IMRR wiki website: i HP:1 JHJH

Pareto front Extreme floods JSJS JHJH JFJF J eF

Pareto front Extreme floods JHJH JFJF J eF

Pareto front Extreme floods JSJS JFJF J eF

Pareto front Extreme floods JSJS JHJH J eF

BAU alternative The historical behavior (releases and levels) are evaluated in the design condition: 1. the river incision is assumed to be the one of 2010 for all the period ; 2. the hydropower demand is the one of 2010; 3. the water supply demand is the one of 2010; 4. Van Coc operating rule is the present one 5. Hoa Binh reservoir only is assumed to be active (Thac Ba data are available from 2002 only!) Then the BAU evaluation does not exactly reflect what happened in the past!

Duong/Hong ratio

Pareto front (Scenario DS1, 2.5 M policy evaluations) * JSJS JHJH JFJF

* JHJH JFJF

JFJF J eF * ?

Alternative Indicator Percentual deficit [%] Percentual deficit of HBinh [%] Hist. HP of Hoa Binh Historical period -> 2 Power plants only!

Pareto front (Scenario DS1, 2.5 M policy evaluations) * JHJH JFJF

Hoa Binh release Turbine capacity

Pareto front (Scenario DS1, 2.5 M policy evaluations) Historical production * * -75 % -83 % JFJF

Pareto front (Scenario DS1, 2.5 M policy evaluations) * -75 % -98 % JSJS JFJF

Pareto front (Scenario DS1, 2.5 M policy evaluations) * -83 % -98 % JHJH * JSJS

Parallel coordinates plot A1156 Hist. Natural

Alternative A design Ha Noi ( ) 11.5 First alarm

Alternative A1156 – design Son La ( )

Alternative A1156 – design Hoa Binh ( )

Alternative A1156 – design Tuyen Quang ( ) The irrigation is supplied by Tuyen Quang reservoir mainly, since the production on Hoa Binh is more valuable: higher head

Design + validation scenario Extreme years Validation

Alternative A validation Son La ( ) 2012

Alternative A validation Hoa Binh ( ) 2012

Alternative A validation Tuyen Quang ( ) 2012

Design + validation scenario Extreme years Validation

Son La inflow

Son La storage

Hoa Binh inflow

Hoa Binh decision

Tuyen Quang inflow

Tuyen Quang storage

Storage space

Trajectories of A1156 in the storage space

Design scenario: DS1 20 years of regular flows (1/5/ /4/2010) 19 years - 5 extreme flood years (red) -5 extreme drought years (yellow) -9 normal years interposed (blue) regular indicators extreme indicators J F, J H, J S J eF, J eS DS2 23 years of regular flows (1/5/ /4/2013)

Pareto front (Scenario DS2, M policy evaluations) JSJS JHJH JFJF

JHJH JFJF

JSJS JFJF

J eF JFJF

What about improper behavior?

Trajectories of B79 in the storage space

Trajectories of A1156 in the storage space

Trajectories of B79 in the storage space

Further 2.5 M policies evaluations (+13 days) were run to ascertain that nothing better can be obtained. In total 28 days of run for a total of years of evaluation

Pareto front (Scenario DS2, policy evaluations) JSJS JHJH JFJF

-75% -99 % * JHJH JFJF

Pareto front (Scenario DS2, policy evaluations) -75 % -98 % * JSJS JFJF

Pareto front (Scenario DS2, policy evaluations) -99 % -98 % * JSJS JHJH

Pareto front (Scenario DS2, policy evaluations) J eF JFJF

Parallel coordinates plot group C C123 A1154

C123: Water level at Ha Noi

Parallel coordinates plot group C C123 A1154 C254

C254: Water level at Ha Noi

C254: Water level at Ha Noi 2000 K scenario

1971 flood and C254

1996 flood and C254

C254: Son La storage design scenario

C254: Son La storage 2000 years scenario

C254: Tuyen Quang storage design scenario

C254: Tuyen Quang storage 2000 years scenario

Validation of the Extreme Splitting Approach J eF JFJF 2000 years scenario 2K scenario

Pareto front group C JSJS JHJH JFJF J eF

Pareto front group C JHJH JFJF J eF

Pareto front group C JSJS J eF JFJF

Pareto front group C JSJS JHJH J eF

Pareto front group C J eF JFJF JHJH

1996 flood and C254

1996 Rivers flows

1996 Son La – Hoa Binh storages

1996 Son La – Hoa Binh decision and release

1996 Son La storage and release

Next week We will analyze in detail the effects of the policies on the different sectors. We will establish the evaluation criteria of each of them.

What next? 1.The information used by the policy is the storages and the time only. What is the advantage of adding other information? E.g. Ha Noi level, the volume stored in the irrigation canal or the current inflows? 2.We have neglected the storage thresholds presently imposed by law. What is the cost and advantage of maintaining them? 3.What is the best form for the policy?

Thanks for your attention XIN CẢM ƠN

Schedules  Group A: u First trial with random seeds and termination of 1M evaluations using design scenario of 39 years DS1 (from 1/5/1990 – 30/4/2010 and extreme years ) u Validate some good alternatives of group A, ex. A1156 with three years (1/5/2010 – 30/4/2013) adding to the design scenario and 2000 years scenarios.  Group B: u Second trial start from group A and termination after 1.5M evaluations using design scenario of 39 years DS1. u Validate some good alternatives of group B, ex. B094 with three years (1/5/2010 – 30/4/2013) adding to the design scenario and 2000 years scenarios.  Need to add also three years (1/5/2010 – 30/4/2013) to design scenario since this period includes three continuos drought year which not happen in the history.  The optimal population of Group B is reduced by criteria on five objective scales: J F  15,000 ; J eF  300,000; J H  0.6; J S  150; J eS  450. and have 191 alternatives which will be used as the initial population of group C.

Schedules  Group C: u Start from reduced final population of Group B (191 alternatives) and stop after 0.5M evaluations using design scenario of 42 years DS2 (from 1/5/1990 – 30/4/2013 and extreme years) u Validate some good alternatives of group C, ex. C with 2000 years scenarios.  Group D: u Continue with the final population of Group C and stop after +1.5 M evaluations using design scenario of 42 years DS2 (from 1/5/1990 – 30/4/2013 and extreme years ) u Validate some good alternatives of group D, with 2000 years scenarios.  Group E: u Continue with the final population of Group D and stop after +1M evaluations using design scenario of 42 years DS2 (from 1/5/1990 – 30/4/2013 and extreme years ) u Validate some good alternatives of group E, with 2000 years scenarios. u In total 5.5 M

Threshold violation in the history Illegal violation … … since Ha Noi is below the alarm threshold. Legal gradual level growth

Threshold violation in the design Illegal violations … … since Ha Noi is below the alarm threshold. Legal gradual level growth