Boyang Li "The Economics of Ultra-poverty: Causes and Remedies“ March 22, 2012 The Elliott School. George Washington University GOVERNMENTAL IMPACTS ON U.S. POVERTY ： A TIME SERIES REGRESSION ANALYSIS ON US POVERTY RECORDS SINCE 1950S

1.Understand historical development on poverty 2.Find out the key factors that lead to the stable poverty rates. RESEARCH GOALS

1.US economic inequality (Smeeding, 2005) 2.SOCIAL POLICY & U.S. POVERTY (Jaynes, 2011) 3.Comparative study on US poverty issues (Wallace & Meyer, 2009) 4.Framing the Poor Media Coverage and US Poverty Policy, 1960–2008 （ M. Rose, A. Fellow, 2012 ） 5.Real income & Low taxation (Henry C.K. Liu,2009) BACKGROUND

(US economic inequality, Smeeding, 2005) HISTORICAL FIGURE: POVERTY RATE

(US economic inequality, Smeeding, 2005) HISTORICAL FIGURE: INCOME DISTRIBUTION

(US economic inequality, Smeeding, 2005) HISTORICAL FIGURE: INTERNATIONAL GINI COEFFICIENT

Economic Factors ： 1.Unemployment 2.Income Distribution 3.Shift in Business Economy Individual Factors ： 1.Lack of Education (or Skill) 2.Breakdown of Family System 3.Lack of Willpower POVERTY ： TWO TYPES OF REASONS

Income Growth Economic Growth  How to explain the growth of number of poverty? Who are becoming poor? REDUCE POVERTY: INCREASE INCOME

(NYTimes,2007) HISTORICAL FIGURE: TAX RATE

 How to guarantee sufficient government investment on poverty group under a low taxation policy scenario?  Will the middle class be more “vulnerable” if the tax rate become higher? PROBLEM

Dependent variable:  Poverty rate Independent variables  Governmental deficit  Expansion (or compression) of government departments  Social welfare transfers  Inflationary  Tax rate for high, middle and low earners ANALYSIS

Boyang Li George Mason University QUESTION & THANK YOU