SEARCH Understanding Change Panel: Priority Needs and Implementation Status Matt Berman John Walsh Nov. 5, 2007 Charge to panel: Plan the data analysis,

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Presentation transcript:

SEARCH Understanding Change Panel: Priority Needs and Implementation Status Matt Berman John Walsh Nov. 5, 2007 Charge to panel: Plan the data analysis, modeling, and synthesis activities to understand the nature and causes of change, and to reduce uncertainty of projections of future change.

History of SEARCH Understanding Change program planning 1. Started with Arctic Oscillation Hypothesis AO shifted, and the Arctic didn’t. 2. “Is Arctic moving to a new state” hypothesis? Answering whether Arctic has moved to a new state no longer urgent before science program really started. Arctic environment is changing faster than science can mobilize to understand and predict it, much less plan for the consequences. Policy environment shifting – from “is it happening?” to “what to do about it?”

Need for Understanding Activities On a national and global scale: need science to support well-informed mitigation policy, i.e., –How soon will ____ happen? –Can we afford to wait 20 years to begin deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions? On a local and regional scale: need science to support well-informed adaptation policy, i.e., –Arctic marine and terrestrial ecosystem management –Arctic infrastructure and settlement policy

Synthesis: Making SEARCH Relevant to U.S. and Global Climate Policy Quantify feedbacks to global climate system Locate critical thresholds Measure rates and trajectory of change greenhouse effect with feedbacks Arctic temperature CO 2 forcing base greenhouse effect CO 2, CH 4 feedback from thermokarst, fires albedo feedback from snow, ice, vegetation Greenland ice sheet melts NA thermohaline circulation shuts down Matt Berman SEARCH SSC meeting, 11/30/05

Human and Natural Systems Linked Across Local and Global Scales Regime shifts in climate and the environment, unprecedented in the historical and recent geological record Sweeping impacts of change on Northern populations and cultures Expansion of global geopolitical and economic interests into the North Increasing interdependence between the Arctic region and global processes Hajo Eicken SEARCH SSC meeting, 11/30/05

What are some of the high-priority needs for increased understanding Based on: Urgency of need for increased understanding? Readiness for progress by coordination of ongoing activities? Fit to SEARCH program objectives and observations?

Sea ice What is driving the ongoing retreat?

What is driving the ongoing sea ice retreat? Projects underway ARCSS SASS: Serreze (Heat budget analysis) Perovich (Solar radiation disposition) SEARCH AON: Proshutinsky, Morison, Rigor, Eicken, Lee, Schlosser, Stanton, Toole, Steele Woodgate, others NOAA: Rhines/Erickson, Richter-Menge IARC: Polyakov Other IPY projects

Greenland ice sheet How is the Greenland ice sheet changing and why?

Projects underway ARCSS SASS: Fahnestock NASA: Bales, Bromwich, Cassano, Wu, Bindschadler, Krabill NSF CReSIS (Gogenini) Various other IPY projects

Arctic marine ecosystems How are they changing and why?

How are Arctic marine ecosystems changing and why? Projects underway ARCSS SASS: Ashjian, Urban ARCSS SBI, SNACS: Ashjian, Bates BEST (Bering focus): Hunt, various other projects NOAA Russian-American Long-term Census of the Arctic; Grebmeier AYK Sustainable Salmon Initiative: (western Alaska salmon) NPRB BSIERP: Trites (Bering patch dynamics study)

Feedbacks of change How are clouds affecting Arctic climate change? How will future Arctic ecosystem changes affect methane and CO 2 releases?

Feedbacks of change: how are clouds affecting Arctic change? Projects underway SEARCH UCP: Persson NSF SASS: Francis NOAA: Ket/Uttal/Stone NASA:

Feedbacks of change: how will future Arctic ecosystem changes affect methane and CO 2 releases? Projects underway ARCSS SNACS: Rhew NOAA: Swmiletov

Human and social dimensions What are likely consequences for humans of rapid environmental change (vulnerability analyses)? How are and will arctic communities adapt to directional environmental change? How will human adaptations to environmental change affect ecosystems to cause further ecological changes?

Human and social dimensions What are likely consequences for humans of rapid environmental change (vulnerability analyses)? Lammers, Ogilvie (SASS); Ashjian (SNACS) How are and will arctic communities adapt to directional environmental change? John (HBest); other Arctic Social Science programs, i.e., Huskey How will human adaptations to environmental change affect ecosystems to cause further ecological changes? Kofinas (SASS), McGovern (IPY)

SEARCH Integration Projects NSF: Chapin, Bromwich (Arctic System Reanalysis), Proshutinsinsky/Zhang/Pantaleev (ocean/ice data assimilation) NOAA: Overland, Intrieri, Fetterer; Wang (data assimilation)