What do we know, what have we learned? Michigan, US, and Obamanomics Jared Bernstein Economic Policy Institute MLHS Annual Meeting

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Presentation transcript:

What do we know, what have we learned? Michigan, US, and Obamanomics Jared Bernstein Economic Policy Institute MLHS Annual Meeting

Real Economy, macro It’s official—recession, that is…but you knew that. Consumer: retrenching, big time. Investment: squeezed on credit and profit sides Exports/Imports: Maybe, maybe not… Government: most reliable source of short term growth?

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, EPI Employment Projections

Employment Declines Across Sectors Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Source: EPI analysis of Census Bureau data

Source: EPI Analysis of BLS data and Goldman-Sachs unemployment rate forecasts

Source: Mark Zandi, Moody’s economy.com

Un-Real Economy Financial Markets: Dow, Nasdaq, S&P 500, Russell 2000…all down about 40% ytd. But: good news…”Ted Spread” responding Housing: some signs bottom in sight, but no signs re uptick…prices still falling…inventory overhang; TARP: Certainly not a confidence builder yet. Fed: pushing on string but not giving up.

Pres/VP Elect Fiscal constraints? Deficit could go as high as 6% of GDP, but debt around 40% (avg 46% in 1990s). Must he alter his long-term plans--hth care/energy? There is a time for budget austerity; this ain’t it. Middle-class, poor, labor agenda (EFCA, min wg, UI reform, OSHA, etc…)

Their Agenda Morph his recovery package with House D’s (Making Work Pay tax cuts; new jobs tax credit; mortgage relief; small biz, UI) Manage TARP Tax agenda Energy/Health Care Infrastructure (who gets the jobs?) Regulation (Cooper Union speech)

What Have We Learned? Markets Ineq Public investment No more TBTF Financial markets

Learned…cont. Budget priorities Supply-side Amply funded gov’t Shampoo economy Better economists