What do you think? Should marijuana be legalized for recreational use in Illinois? Which factor has had the biggest impact on your decision? Family Media School Peers Social groups (religion, race, gender, etc.)

President Obama wants to know if Americans support the idea of providing two years of free community college. How can he determine this?

Measuring Public Opinion Elections Personal Contacts Media Interest Groups Polls Each method has a problem associated with it. What is it?

Recent Polls What do they tell us? Use the polls to develop a legislative agenda for President Obama. At least three ideas/suggestions. Must support each with EVIDENCE from the poll.

Public Opinion Polls Polls are interviews or surveys of a sample of citizens used to estimate how the public feels about an issue or set of issues.

What is the story?

Types of Polls Straw polls--unscientific and require an effort from the person being polled. ExampleExample Tracking polls--continuous surveys that enable a campaign to chart its daily rise and fall in popularity. Exit polls--polls conducted at polling places on election day. Push polls--provide information that will “push” respondents away from one candidate.

The polling process Identify the universe – those represented by the results. Select a sample of the universe –Random – draw names from a hat –Quota – select respondents from known census data –Stratified – combines random and quota Write VALID questions – avoid bias

Steps con’t Administer questions – phone or in-person Calculated and analyze results – report in percentages

In general, do not trust a poll that does not tell you the question wording, the sampling method, and the ways in which respondents were contacted. Reputable pollsters will also tell you the number of respondents (the 'n') and the error rate (+ or - 5%). Any poll that tells you to call for yes and for no is unscientific and unreliable. This is not a random sample at all! Evaluating polls

Should polls replace elections in American democracy? YesNo