1Adaptation From assessment to action UNFCCC compendium on impacts, vulnerability and adaptation methods Sonja Vidic Meteorological and Hydrological Service Croatia

2 In negotiations about climate change, two broad policy responses debated are mitigation (of greenhouse gas emissions) and mitigation (of greenhouse gas emissions) and adaptation (to climate change impacts or risks). adaptation (to climate change impacts or risks). Countries are committed in the UNFCCC to formulate and implement measures to facilitate to formulate and implement measures to facilitate adaptation (Article 4.1b), and adaptation (Article 4.1b), and to cooperate in preparing for adaptation to the impacts to cooperate in preparing for adaptation to the impacts of climate change (Article 4.1e). of climate change (Article 4.1e).

3 First generation approach: adaptation linked to Climate scenarios Climate scenarios Future climate andanticipatedvulnerability Future climate and anticipated vulnerability More impact than adaptation oriented Focus on: Focus on: stabilization of greenhouse gas stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere concentrations in the atmosphere mitigation options mitigation options

4 Unchanged facts: Unchanged facts: 1.Climate change continues affecting us in the future regardless GHG stabilization 2.Adaptation to climate change still plays a key role 3.Less developed, more vulnerable Problems: Problems: Too abstract and uncertain Too abstract and uncertain No reality check: hard to explain to stakeholders No reality check: hard to explain to stakeholders Based only on mean changes of temperature Based only on mean changes of temperature and precipitation and precipitation No projections or risk assessmentsof extreme events No projections or risk assessments of extreme events Lack of assessment tools/models Lack of assessment tools/models

5 Second generation approach: adaptation linked to Currentcurrent Current climate variability and current vulnerability in addition to the concern with future climate and vulnerability. This empirical approach provides grounding in reality on which to base projections of future impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation. Compendium – catalogue of methods provides information on available tools and their intended use.

6 COMPENDIUM OF METHODS

7 AutonomousadaptationPlannedadaptationAdaptivecapacity represents no consciously planned interventions represents no consciously planned interventions there is potential to reduce negative impact of CC there is potential to reduce negative impact of CC or to moderate vulnerabilities or to moderate vulnerabilities tends to be reactive tends to be reactive can be quite costly and can be quite costly and can encounter some residual damages can encounter some residual damages represents consciously planned response represents consciously planned response considered at local, national and considered at local, national and international scales international scales particular adaptation measures or practices, particular adaptation measures or practices, can be almost infinite in number can be almost infinite in number Adaptive capacity: potential or ability of a system, region or community to adapt Enhancement of adaptive capacity represents practical means of coping with changes and uncertainties in climate, including variability and extremes

8 What do we need? Scientific understanding Climate processes Climate processes Linkages between climate and society Linkages between climate and society Tools to model interactions between climate and society – compendium of methods Tools to model interactions between climate and society – compendium of methods Stakeholders involvement Deeply involved at the level of understanding Deeply involved at the level of understanding Participation in research and assessment activities Participation in research and assessment activities Use of available tools - compendium of methods Use of available tools - compendium of methods Funding sectorial and interdisciplinary studies Funding sectorial and interdisciplinary studies Recognition of benefits Recognition of benefits Supportive government That understands and facilitates all of it !!!

9 What are limitations ? They depend on social and economic welfare !! Countries with economical difficulties still cope with Lack of vision and strategic planning Lack of vision and strategic planning Day-to-day policy decision making Day-to-day policy decision making No continuity in project funding No continuity in project funding No resources for A&V assessments No resources for A&V assessments No stakeholder involvement No stakeholder involvement Lack of integration Lack of integration at governmental level !!!

10 Is Compendium useful ? Yes !!! Underpins scientific understanding, defelopment of new methods. Provides tools for sectoral analyses. Facilitates stakeholders involvement. Supports independant research activities of interested groups.