A waterfront is not just a body of water. It’s the flow of memory—the origin of the city itself. Daniel Liebeskind, Belgrade, 2008 David J. Kilcullen | Paris | © Kilcullen Strategic Research LLC, 2014

Source: United Nations, Economic & Social Affairs, Population Division, 2005

3 Dramatic, disruptive change—in one generation or less. Edgar Pieterse, Cape Town, 2012

More people are living in more, and larger, cities than ever before. The fastest-growing cities are in the global south— emerging cities in Asia, Africa and Latin America, which often struggle to manage the pace and scale of their growth. These emerging megacities are concentrated on the world’s coastlines, rivers and lakes. Littoral cities are densely connected: within and among themselves, with their rural hinterlands, and with global networks and diasporas.

5 Urban Overstretch

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Water and Rebellion

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Water, States and City-States

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16 Manila 10.4m people 14 feet above sea level Systemic Challenges

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18 Urban Metabolism

Infrastructure & Governance under stress The City as a System Environmental Degradation Poor Rural Infrastructure Lack of Access to Energy Poverty, hunger, disease Rural Crime and conflict Physical Economic Governmental RAPID, UNPLANNED URBANIZATION driven by: URBAN POVERTY CONFLICT prompted by: ABSENT GOVERNMENT POLITICAL INSTABILITY UNEMPLOYMENT CRIME RURAL HINTERLAND RURAL HINTERLAND PERI-URBAN ZONE PERI-URBAN ZONE URBAN CORE & CBD URBAN CORE & CBD TRANSITIONAL ZONE TRANSITIONAL ZONE Emigration Shipping Offshore Extractives Trade Smuggling Piracy REMITTANCE system ILLICIT activity LICIT activity Diaspora OFFSHORE (INTERNATIONAL) FLOWS OFFSHORE (INTERNATIONAL) FLOWS

Water runs through every aspect of urban life. It connects conflict, climate, environment, health, governance, population and economy. Water shapes the city and is shaped by it; the city’s growth defines conflict pathways, which in turn channel the city and its flows, including water. Water is a blue-green thread tying together diverse problems; if we can understand the metabolism of the city, and use water to build cross-cutting interests, it can become a means to solve them.