Time Series A collection of measurements recorded at specific time intervals.

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Presentation transcript:

Time Series A collection of measurements recorded at specific time intervals

Time Series Any data recorded over time is time series data The horizontal time scale should be in even intervals

Data can be analysed to find: Long term trends Seasonal variation Short term fluctuations Future predicted values

How to graph them Time on bottom axis Actual measurement on vertical axis

Short term features Are there spikes or outliers? Why?

Calculate the moving average to smooth the data Plot the trend line (smooth data) Describe the long term trend Describe the seasonal variation Try to predict the next year’s data

Long term features General trend Seasonal variation

Graph this data for icecream sales Calculate the moving average to smooth the data Plot the trend line (smooth data) Describe the long term trend Describe the seasonal variation Try to predict the next year’s data MonthData Feb22 Jun8 Oct12 Feb20 Jun7 Oct11 Feb22 Jun6 Oct10 Feb18 Jun5 Oct7 Page 296 Ex Page 299 Ex #1