Foreign Policy CHAPTER FOUR Dr. Clayton Thyne PS 235-001: World Politics Spring 2008 Goldstein & Pevehouse, International Relations, 8/e Student notes version

Making Foreign Policy Purpose: Foreign policies (def):

Making Foreign Policy Comparative foreign policy Study of foreign policy in various states in order to… 3 approaches: How does size, wealth and dem  FP decisions? How do populations, natural resources and technology  FP decisions? How does a state’s political culture and history  FP decisions? Foreign policy outcomes result from multiple forces at various levels of analysis.

Models of Decision Making Rational model Decision makers set goals, evaluate their relative importance, calculate the costs and benefits of each possible course of action, and then choose the one with the highest benefits and lowest costs. EUwar = Prvictory(Uvictory) – (1-Prvictory)(Closing) Role of uncertainty Accepting of risk versus averse to risk

Models of Decision Making Organizational process model Government bargaining (bureaucratic) model

Individual Decision Makers Study of individual decision making revolves around the question of rationality. Difficulties of oversimplification We can…

Individual Decision Makers Beyond individual idiosyncrasies, individual decision making diverges from the rational model in at least three systematic ways: Decision makers suffer from… Affective bias: Cognitive bias:

Individual Decision Makers Two specific modifications of the rational model of decision making have been proposed to accommodate psychological realities. Bounded rationality Prospect theory

Estimates of Probabilities of Death From Various Causes Cause Subject Estimates Statistical Estimates Heart Disease 0.22 0.34 Cancer 0.18 0.23 Other Natural Causes 0.33 0.35 All Natural Causes 0.73 0.92 Accident 0.32 0.05 Homicide 0.10 0.01 Other Unnatural Causes 0.11 0.02 All Unnatural Causes 0.53 0.08

Group Psychology Group dynamics can be a promoter of state interests but they can also introduce new sources of irrationality into the decision-making process. Positive: Negative: Group psychology: Groupthink (def): Groups tend to be overly…

Figure 4.3

Crisis Management Crises (def): Stress amplifies bias Rules are often circumvented

Domestic Politics Foreign policy is shaped not only by the internal dynamics of individual and group decision making but also by the states and societies within which decision makers operate.

Bureaucracies Bureaucracies: Diplomats Interagency tensions Virtually all states maintain a diplomatic corps, or foreign service, of diplomats in embassies in foreign capitals Includes… Tension common between state leaders and foreign policy bureaucrats Interagency tensions Bureaucratic rivalry as an influence on foreign policy challenges the notion of states as unitary actors in the international system.

Interest Groups Interest groups (def): Lobbying The process of… Three important elements:

The Military Industrial Complex Def: Response to the growing importance of technology Encompasses a variety of constituencies, each of which has an interest in military spending Corporations, military officers, universities, and scientific institutes that receive military research contracts Revolving door problem: PACS from the military industry

Public Opinion Range of views on foreign policy issues held by the citizens of a state Has a greater influence on foreign policy in democracies than in authoritarian governments In democracies, public opinion generally has less effect on foreign policy than on domestic policy.

Figure 4.4

Legislatures Conduit through which interest groups and public opinion can wield influence Presidential systems; separate elections Parliamentary systems; political parties are dominant