Norges Bank 1 Executive Board meeting 13 December 2006

Norges Bank 2 Growth forecast OECD GDP. Annual change. Per cent Source: Consensus Forecasts

Norges Bank 3 House prices 1) and housing starts in the US Seasonally adjusted. 12-month change. 2) Jan 03 – Oct 06 1) Median price for dwellings 2) 3-quarter moving average Existing homes New homes Housing starts Sources: Reuters EcoWin and Norges Bank

Norges Bank 4 1) Activity indicator for the business sector Manufacturing Non-manufacturing US – ISM index 1) Index values. Monthly figures. Seasonally adjusted Sources: EcoWin / Institute for Supply Management and NBER

Norges Bank 5 Output gap 3-year moving average. Annual figures US Source: OECD EO Database Germany 1) Japan 1) Estimated on the basis of data for West Germany in the period , Germany in the period

Norges Bank 6 Oil price Brent Blend and futures prices USD per barrel. 3 January 2002 – 11 December December 2006 Sources: Telerate, IPE and Norges Bank 26 October IR 3/06

Norges Bank 7 CPI/HICP core 12-month change. January 1997 – October 2006 Source: EcoWin / National statistics UK 1) US 2) Euro area 1) Japan 3) 1) HICP excl. energy, food, alcohol and tobacco 2) CPI excl. food and energy 3) CPI excl. fresh food.

Norges Bank 8 Sources: Reuters and Norges Bank US Euro area 11 Dec 2006 IR 3/06 (31 Oct) Sweden UK Actual and expected key rates as per IR 3/06 and 11 December 2006

Norges Bank 9 5-year yield 5 years ahead 1 January December 2006 Germany US Sources: Norges Bank and EcoWin Norway

Norges Bank 10 Norges Bank's and the market's overnight deposit rate scenario At 11 December 2006 Market 11 Dec 2006 Baseline scenario IR 3/06 Sources: Reuters and Norges Bank Market 31 Oct 2006

Norges Bank 11 Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank I-44 (right-hand scale) Weighted interest rate differential (left-hand scale) 31 Oct 06 (IR 3/06) 11 December ) A rising curve denotes an appreciation of the krone. 3-month interest rate differential and import-weighted exchange rate (I-44) 1) January 2002 – December 2009 Average 1 – 12 December 06

Norges Bank 12 Various inflation indicators 12-month change. Per cent Source: Statistics Norway Weighted median CPI-ATE 20 per cent trimmed mean CPI

Norges Bank 13 Expected consumer price inflation in 5 years Per cent. Quarterly figures Q Q4 Experts Employers' organisations Source: TNS Gallup Employees' organisations

Norges Bank 14 Wage growth - wages paid Growth on same quarter previous year. Per cent Q1 – 2006 Q3 Manufacturing Transport and communications Source: Statistics Norway Retail trade B&C Commercial services and property management Hotel and restaurant

Norges Bank 15 Mainland GDP National accounts before and after the main revision. Percentage annual growth Source: Statistics Norway

Norges Bank 16 Revised quarterly national accounts figures Old quarterly national accounts figures Employment - National accounts National accounts before and after main revision. In thousands – 2005 Source: Statistics Norway

Norges Bank 17 Enterprise sector credit 1) and liquid assets 2) 12-month growth. Per cent. January 2002 – October 2006 (C3 to Aug) 1) Mainland non-financial enterprises (C3). 2) Non-financial enterprises' liquid assets (M2). Money supply (M2) Source: Norges Bank Total credit (C3)

Norges Bank 18 House prices and household debt Change on same month/quarter previous year. Per cent. January 2001 November 2006 House prices Household debt (C2) Sources: Norwegian Association of Real Estate Agents, Association of Real Estate Agency Firms, Finn.no, ECON and Norges Bank Real estate business

Norges Bank 19 Monetary Policy Strategy - Inflation Report 3/06 The Executive Board’s assessment is that the sight deposit rate should be in the interval 3¼ - 4¼% in the period to the publication of the next Inflation Report on 15 March 2007, conditional on economic developments that are broadly in line with the projections. “The interest rate may gradually be raised to a more normal level at a somewhat faster pace than envisaged earlier, although it is unlikely that rates will be raised at every monetary policy meeting. In the light of our current assessment, the interest rate will thus continue to be raised in small, not too frequent steps."

Norges Bank 20 Baseline scenario in Inflation Report 3/06 Import- weighted exchange rate CPI-ATE Output gap Sight deposit rate Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank