CLIVAR and GECAFS Anji Seth International Research Institute For Climate Prediction (IRI)

World Climate Research Programme Objectives: to determine the extent climate can be predicted, the extent of human influence on climate, and to improve understanding of the role of climate in the total earth system Activities: WCRP projects coordinate international research effort on physical aspects of climate Links: International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) and the International Human Dimensions Programme (IHDP) Joint Planning Staff at WMO, Geneva

WCRP Projects Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) [Tropical Ocean-Global Atmosphere (TOGA)] World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) Global Water and Energy Experiment (GEWEX) Stratospheric Processes and Climate (SPARC) Arctic Climate System Study (ACSYS) Cryosphere and Climate (CliC) Carbon Cycle, Water and Food and Fibre Projects (joint with IGBP/IHDP)

CLIVAR objectives (1) To describe and understand the physical processes responsible for climate variability and predictability on seasonal, interannual, decadal, and centennial time- scales, through the collection and analysis of observations and the development and application of models of the coupled climate system, in cooperation with other relevant climate-research and observing programmes. To extend the record of climate variability over the time- scales of interest through the assembly of quality- controlled paleoclimatic and instrumental data sets.

CLIVAR objectives (2) To extend the range and accuracy of seasonal to interannual climate prediction through the development of global coupled predictive models. To understand and predict the response of the climate system to increases of radiatively active gases and aerosols and to compare these predictions to the observed climate record in order to detect the anthropogenic modification of the natural climate signal.

CLIVAR - Principal Research Areas

Key Panels for GECAFS For scenarios and predictions: Working Group on Seasonal to Interannual Prediction Working Group on Coupled Modelling –decadal variability and scenarios of anthropogenic climate change And more widely in terms of climate variability studies: Variability of the American Monsoon System (VAMOS) Atlantic Basin Panel Variability of African Climate System (VACS) Climate Indices: Joint CLIVAR/CCI Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Identify and communicate GECAFS requirements for the Caribbean to CLIVAR Panels and Working Groups

CLIVAR - global view