7 th Joint TFEIP & EIONET meeting, Thessaloniki, 2006 Heavy metal modelling: Use of different emission inventories Oleg Travnikov EMEP/MSC-E

7 th Joint TFEIP & EIONET meeting, Thessaloniki, 2006 Model results vs. observations Underestimation of observed concentrations by 65-75% Lead Annual mean concentration in precipitation based on official emissions data (2000) Cadmium Mod = 0.35 Obs Corr = 0.70 Mod = 0.26 Obs Corr = 0.76 Cd Pb

7 th Joint TFEIP & EIONET meeting, Thessaloniki, 2006 Workshop on the review of EMEP MSC-E models on HMs and POPs Reasons of model/measurement discrepancies may particularly include:  Incompleteness and uncertainty of available emission inventories of heavy metals  Unaccounted secondary emission of heavy metals (wind re-suspension) (ECE/EB.AIR/GE.1/2006/4) Workshop concluded:  Most transport models (including MSC-E Heavy Metal model) underestimate air and precipitation concentration when using official emission data

7 th Joint TFEIP & EIONET meeting, Thessaloniki, 2006 Uncertainty of emission inventories Comparison of official emissions data, and ESPREME estimates (2000) Lead Cadmium

7 th Joint TFEIP & EIONET meeting, Thessaloniki, 2006 Uncertainty of emission inventories 35% underestimation 75% underestimation Mod = 0.26 Obs Corr = 0.76 Mod = 0.64 Obs Corr = 0.56 Official dataESPREME estimates Annual mean Cd concentration in precipitation based on official and ESPREME estimates (2000) Cd

7 th Joint TFEIP & EIONET meeting, Thessaloniki, 2006 Wind re-suspension of HM Dust suspension:  Saltation [Marticorena & Bergametti, 1995; Gomes et al., 2003]  Sandblasting [Alfaro & Gomes, 2001]

7 th Joint TFEIP & EIONET meeting, Thessaloniki, 2006 Wind re-suspension of HM Default HM concentrations in soil (Eastern Europe, Africa, Asia) Metal Conc (mg/kg) Reference Pb15 Reimann and Cariat, 1998 Cd0.2 Nriagu, 1980 As5 Beyer & Cromartie, 1987 Cr50 Shacklette et al., 1970 Ni15 Nriagu, 1980 Pb concentration in European soils FOREGS (

7 th Joint TFEIP & EIONET meeting, Thessaloniki, 2006 Wind re-suspension of HM Anthropogenic emissions Re-suspension Anthropogenic emissions vs. re-suspension of Pb

7 th Joint TFEIP & EIONET meeting, Thessaloniki, 2006 Model results vs. observations (Pb) Official Annual mean Pb concentration in precipitation (2000) Official+re-suspen. ESPREME+re-suspen. Mod = 0.35 Obs Corr = 0.7 Mod = 0.62 Obs Corr = 0.66 Mod = 0.79 Obs Corr = % underestimation40% underestimation65% underestimation

7 th Joint TFEIP & EIONET meeting, Thessaloniki, 2006 Model results vs. observations (Cd) Annual mean Cd concentration in precipitation (2000) Mod = 0.26 Obs Corr = 0.76 Mod = 0.33 Obs Corr = 0.71 Mod = 0.71 Obs Corr = % underestimation65% underestimation75% underestimation OfficialOfficial+re-suspen. ESPREME+re-suspen.

7 th Joint TFEIP & EIONET meeting, Thessaloniki, 2006 Conclusions  Use of currently available emissions data leads to underestimation of ambient heavy metal concentrations by atmospheric transport models  Modelling results based on ESPREME estimates commonly demonstrate better agreement with measurements than those based on official emissions data  Wind re-suspension of some heavy metals can significantly contribute to their ambient concentration and depositions in Europe

7 th Joint TFEIP & EIONET meeting, Thessaloniki, 2006 Emission inventories vs. ambient measurements Total emissions vs. measured wet depositions of Cd in Europe Emission inventories does not reflect long-term changes and ambient levels of HMs in Europe Cd Emissions vs. concentration in precip. of Pb in the United Kingdom

7 th Joint TFEIP & EIONET meeting, Thessaloniki, 2006 Anthropogenic emissions vs. re-suspension Pb emissions in European countries Pb mean concentration in soil Pb

7 th Joint TFEIP & EIONET meeting, Thessaloniki, 2006 Anthropogenic emissions vs. re-suspension Cd emissions in European countries Cd mean concentration in soil Cd

7 th Joint TFEIP & EIONET meeting, Thessaloniki, 2006 Wind re-suspension of HM Anthropogenic emissions Re-suspension Anthropogenic emissions vs. re-suspension of Cd