Dec 18-19, OSAKA

I Love I Love You You

1876 : Alexander G. BELL invents the PHONE 1838: Samuel MORSE invents the TELEGRAPH ”The telephone would be used only to inform people of arrival of telegrams." % Penetration -- 2 Days Walk for 1 Billion people

"640K ought to be enough for anybody." -- Bill Gates, Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers."

“32 bits should be enough address space for Internet” -- Vint Cerf, 1977 “Not everything that can be counted, counts. -- Einstein, And not everything that counts, can be counted”

ARPANET DEMONSTRATION Johannesburg, South Africa, 1974

Percentage of Ownership Electricity (1873) Telephone (1876) Automobile (1886) Television (1926) Radio (1905) VCR (1952) Microwave (1953) PC (1975) Internet (1975) Years Since Introduction

NCP Conception NCP Roll-Out Now! Now IP Conception IPv4 Roll-Out IPv6 Conception IPv6 Roll-Out 2000

Users on the Internet CAN/US Europe Asia/Pac Latin Am Africa Total Mio Mar 10, 2000 Sep 7, 2000 Source: Telcordia

75% of traffic on Internet is WWW 3 Million Web Sites (est. Jan 1999) 700 Million web pages (and dark info) Data Domination (20% voice, 80% data) 8000 ISPs worldwide (4700+ in U.S.) Traffic growth %/year reported 300 M M users by Dec 2002

Can the Internet run Quality & Security in one go? Internet multicast “video”, telephony and “radio” Transport of Internet traffic on cable, direct broadcast satellite, radio and broadcast TV Real-time quality of service support, VoIP Mutual Reinforcement among media (print, TV, radio, web, )

Internet-enabled Devices In need of IP Addresses, at least! Information appliances – M, M, M (IDC) WebTV, Palm-Pilot, Nokia 9000,Sony, Nintendo, Sega games Wearable computers (Hardwear?, Underware?)

Person Person Appliance Appliance Voice Voic Telemetry ITS Alarm Notifications Emerging Growing Maturing Voice Control Fax Computer TeIephony Integration Home Banking InfoCom Application Areas

Source: Cadence, 1998

Wireless Internet e.g. Internet cell phones, cameras “always on” networking –increasing demand for IP address space “Bluetooth”, Wireless LANs, LMDS and MMDS, Digital Broadcast Satellite Mobile Radio - – 3G cellular (2 Mb/s)

Looking for Killer Apps?

Any Time, Any Where

Future Services Voice still key service Mobile E-commerce Mobile office Mobile images Mobile Mobile internet Vertical applications

Vision: World at your fingertips ADSL, Cable TV,... Service Gateway

“The New Telecom World …. Beyond Voice”

Fixed line (dial-up) subscribers Mobile subscribers PC/NC Internet users Mobile Internet users Millions B The Rush to the Billion! Mobile Internet: ‘ in 4 years as large as 10 years GSM today’

Wide Area Coverage Local Area Coverage Mobile Information Society Wireless, secure, high speed access Messaging internet always on Shared databases & applications Mobile telephony Seamless services IP Fast Internet & Intranet Mobile multimedia

WirelessInformationSociety S-UMTS Satellite Broadband DVB-S DVB-T DAB GSM GPRS/EDGE IR Broadband W-LAN UMTS Satellite/HAPS Broadcasting Cellular Indoor MBS 40 xMDS Broadband WFA Wireless Local Loop Body LANs Personal Area Networks UMTS ++ 4th Generation Local Area Networks MBS 60 MWS Bluetooth Quasi-Cellular Source: Joao DaSilva

Strategic IPv6 Icebreakers

100% IPv6 readiness by 2005 Prime Mister, Yoshiro Mori Jun Murai’s Speech at IST 2000 in Nice

NAT)) IPv6 IPv4 (( NAT)) IPv IPv4 is in the same state as DOS/Windows 3.1! ?

Internet IP Address Need forecasts 200 Millions Source: Internet Software Consortium (

IP Address Haves & Have-Nots

Have-Nots

Projected routing table growth without CIDR/NAT Deployment Period of CIDR Moore’s Law and NATs make routing work today Source: http// ops/bgptable.html But they cannot be relied on forever Growth rate: ~15000 routes/year

Early conclusion + Wireless Growth  Internet 2000 is a baby! Internet Growth 100 IP Adds/person! + Always-On + Info Soft Appliances

Finally The longer the upgrade is postponed, the costlier it will be and the more complex the transition will be ! (compared to IPv4

The New Internet IP Evolution 1 billion + Connected Devices 100m NCP 1983