WMO CAS-16 and the pre-CAS TECO: Preparing WWRP and GAW for Emerging Challenges Michel Beland, President CAS WMO; CAS, EC-65

WMO Research to support a rapidly changing world  Research is becoming even more important because of the acceleration of environmental changes, technological advances and potentially approaching limits to growth…  Population growth, urbanization, changing atmospheric composition, climate change, unsatisfactory climate services, vulnerabilities, air and water pollution, biodiversity, food security, resources constraints, economic growth stagnation?, but also:  New technologies transforming communications, impacting dissemination of weather information, as well as sharing of observations in real time.  Next generation of Hexa flop+ supercomputers extremely costly to run (power hungry) and operate (new approaches for dynamical cores, etc…).  Thus, a renewed focus on needs-driven environmental research is demonstrably best coordinated though global cooperation, and closely linked with operational services.  WMO is particularly well positioned to continue to play a leading role

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Long records of Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 ), Methane (CH 4 ), and Nitrous Oxide (N 2 O) concentrations all show sharp increases Impact Mechanism Cause s Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. Estimated and projected world population according to different variants, (billions)

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Atmospheric changes caused by low sea ice MeteoFrance, Paris. Reduced sea ice in August/September Additional heat stored in ocean Warmer surface temperatures in following seasons Reduced atmospheric vertical stability Amplified baroclinic weather systems in autumn Impact on planetary systems in winter Negative Arctic Oscillation phase Enhanced possibility of cold winters in Central Europe Arctic Response Large-scale Response Possible feedback © Jaiser et al., Tellus 2012

Urban agglomerations at risk of multiple natural hazards (2025) Between half and two thirds of the cities with 1 million inhabitants or more are located in areas that face high risk of exposure to at least one natural disaster. United Nations 2012

By 2080, 39% of lizard populations and 20% of all lizard species will be extinct MeteoFrance, Paris.

Toxic Algae Bloom in Lake Erie October 5-9, 2011, MODIS (Aqua) MeteoFrance, Paris. The bloom is primarily microcystis aeruginosa, an algae that is toxic to mammals. Several days of calm winds and warm temperatures allowed the algae to gather on the surface.

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The 16 th Session of the Commission for Atmospheric Sciences  Pre-CAS-16 TECO  November 2013  Antalya, Turkey  "Responding to the environmental stressors of the 21st century“  CAS-16  November 2013  Antalya, Turkey

TECO agenda Urbanization, High impact weather and its socio-economic impacts, Water and its importance in the earth system, Aerosols and their consequences to humans and the weather and climate system, Evolving technology in observations, Computations and communications, Finding the balance between climate change mitigation and adaptation through improved information on GHG Geoengineering will set the framework for strategic required for future planning.

CAS-16 Programme  Progress and future direction of:  The World Weather Research Programme (WWRP)  THORPEX, recalling its conclusion at the end 2014  Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) Programme  GURME  Recommendations of joint activities  Collaborative activities between WCRP, WWRP and GAW  Cross-cutting initiatives within WMO and with Partners  A Ten-Year Future View: Emerging challenges and opportunities  The Structure of the Commission and Linkages with the WMO Strategic Plan

Proposals on the Post-THORPEX legacy  The success of THORPEX will form the basis of:  Three high-profile projects  Sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction research (S2S), a joint research initiative of WCRP and WWRP  Polar Prediction Research Project, the Nowcasting to seasonal research component of GIPPS  High Impact Weather Research Project, focusing on hours to weeks with special attention to applications  The incorporation into WWRP structures of 2 new Working Groups:  Data Assimilation and Observation Systems  Predictability and Ensemble systems

Strategic Discussion at CAS-16  Strategic papers on Emerging issues of relevance to the Commission and its work over the next ten years:  Urbanization,  High impact weather and its socio-economic impacts, links with commercial services, partnerships,  Water and its importance in the earth system,  Aerosols and their consequences to humans and the weather and climate system,  Evolving technology in observations,  Computations and communications,  Finding the balance between climate change mitigation and adaptation through improved information on GHG  Geoengineering will set the framework for strategic required for future planning.

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