A Solution to the Decision-making Process: GIS-based System for Winthrop's First Responders and Decision Makers During a Flood Evacuation Test Case: Evacuating Winthrop’s Elderly Population University of Massachusetts College of Management Honors Thesis Researcher: Michele N. Karas May 23, 2008 Presentation

Winthrop, Massachusetts  Coastal Community  Peninsula of 1.6 square miles  7 miles of shoreline

Demographic Characteristics:  Total Population 18, ,000  Elderly > 65 3,024; 16.5% + 4,177; 22.8% (US Census Bureau 2000)

Emergency Management  Massachusetts Civil Defense Agency  State EOC; National Guard; MDC  Officials 1990s changed to ‘Emergency Management’ National level  MEMA  FEMA

Planning on a Regional Level  Tragedies of 9/11  November 2002, Homeland Security Act of 2002  January 2006, US Homeland Security Secretary Michael Chertoff – importance of regional cooperation  UASI (Urban Area Security Initiatives)  Metro-Boston Homeland Security and City of Boston’s Mayor Coalition

Winthrop’s Emergency Management Agency

Decision Makers  Emergency Management Director Incident Commander: Fire Chief ‘advises & informs TM of incident’  Town Manager – declares ‘state of emergency’ & PIO

First Responders  Police  Fire  DPW  EMT  BOH  IT

Steps to Research  Literature Review  Hands-on Research & Analysis/Tools: Course work within the Science & Math College, since Jan 08’: EEOS265 – Computer Applications Geography EEOS261 –Statistics for Earth & Geographic Sciences EEOS381 – Applications of GIS

Methodology  GIS Data Model Overview Reality Conceptual Model Logical Model Physical Model Human-oriented Computer-oriented Increasing Abstraction

Methodology: Reality  Winthrop  Coastal Storms  Flooding  Elderly residents  Roadways  Shelters – location and accessibility  Evacuation routes - existing  Elevation  Storm Surge

Spatial Analysis:  Answering “What if” scenarios  Mapping where things are  Mapping density  Finding what’s near by  Patterns  Normative Process: Develop or prescribe new or better designs (e.g. evacuation route)

My Data Model: Objective  Choose the best route of egress for evacuation route,  Identify the area of residency of elderly population,  Within Winthrop: Identify shelter in place and critical evacuation areas,  Outside Winthrop: Identify shelters

Data Collection  Raster - Primary: Ortho/digital aerial photos Secondary: DEM Vector – points/lines/polygons Secondary: shape files, data layers, tables, database  Commonwealth of MA - MassGIS – Office of Geographic and Environmental Information (Exec. Office of Energy and Environmental Affairs

Software used: Geodatabase & Map project  ESRI: ArcGIS Desktop Version 9 ArcMap v9.2 ArcCatalog v9.2 ArcToolboxv 9.2

Winthrop’s Geodatabase: Geodatabase Feature Classes: Town polygon Town survey (lines) Storm Surge Roads (EOT) shapefile Census 2000 Block Group data Schools shapefile (points) Town Halls shapefile Police Departments shapefile Fire Departments shapefile Hospital & Long Care Facilities shapefile

Other data/Symbology:  Analysis Data Used: DEM Ortho/aerial

Steps to Identify Winthrop Evacuation Route  Boston’s evacuation route  Winthrop’s major roadways  Winthrop’s points of exit

Defining Winthrop’s evacuation route  Fire Chief knowledge & history  Past storms

Defining Winthrop’s Elderly Population  Census 2000 Blocks data Group > 65 yrs. Sub-group > 80 yrs.

One Red & one Green Area: Review closer One Blue, one Green & one Yellow Area: in an area of categorized as > 6 ft above sea level. Persons in this area can be Sheltered in Place.

Shelter in place

Critical Evacuation Area

Analysis: Schools for Shelters within Winthrop  High School  Middle School  Fort Banks Elementary  Cummings Elementary Criteria  Location  Accessibility

Discarded School Shelter Sites  High School  Middle School Location Neither ADA Compliant

Shelters in Winthrop  Cummings School EOC  Fort Banks DPW Bldg/Yard

Transport to Shelters Outside of Winthrop  High elevations  Close to Winthrop  Facilities: Care for elderly  Food  Medicine  Amenities

Don Orione Home 111 Orient Ave., East Boston Quigley Memorial Hospital 91 Crest Ave, Chelsea Soldiers Home 91 Crest Ave, Chelsea

Q & A Thank you.