Technology Forecasting

Question 1: what happens to object A in time T if free to evolve ?

Technology Forecasting Question 2: what happens if we change object C ?

Forecasting of Technology Technology  “Applying a systematic technique, method or approach to solve a problem” 1 Forecasting of Technology ... –Forecasting of Applying, –Forecasting of Systems, –Forecasting of Techniques/Methods, –Forecasting of Solve, –Forecasting of Problems. Note 1 a.The application of science, especially to industrial or commercial objectives. b.The scientific method and material used to achieve a commercial or industrial objective.

Forecasting of Technology Technological System Product Primary Function EngineTransmission Working Means Control

Forecasting of Technology Technological System Product Primary Function EngineTransmission Working Means Control

Es.:Forecasting of “Machine Tooling” Grinder Work Piece machine Motor Tool Control Unit Transmission turn

Es.:Forecasting of “Photographic Camera” Camera light record Motor Focus adjust Lens Set Microprocessor

Es.:Forecasting of “Semantic Tool” Semantic TOOLS concepts show ProSAO II  Database GUI Task Scheduler ProSAO II  words tag Parser Database Tagger Markov Hidden Model Technology Nesting

Es.:Forecasting of “Semantic Engine” ProSAO II  words tag Parser Database Tagger Markov Hidden Model

Es.:Forecasting of “ ”

Methods for Technology Forecasting Available Information Methods Tacit Knowledge (Exp.)Delphi Another Comparable System Analogy Methods Observation from SystemExtrapolation Variables to be predictedStatistics PhenomenaCausal Relations Back Link >> n

Methods for Forecast of Technology Forecasting of Technology Technology  “Applying a systematic technique, method or approach to solve a problem” 1 Forecasting of Technology ... –Forecasting of Applying, –Forecasting of Systems, –Forecasting of Techniques/Methods, –Forecasting of Solve, –Forecasting of Problems.

Methods for Forecast of Technology "TIPS" is the acronym for "Theory of Inventive Problem Solving" "TRIZ" is the acronym for the same phrase in Russian TRIZ was developed by Genrich Altshuller and his colleagues in the former USSR starting in 1946, and is now being developed and practiced throughout the world. The research has proceeded in several stages over the last 50 years. Over 2 million patents have been examined, classified by level of inventiveness, and analyzed to look for principles of innovation.

Methods for Forecast of Technology TRIZ Basics Achievements: 1.Problems and solutions were repeated across industries and sciences 2.Patterns of technical evolution were repeated across industries and sciences 3.Innovations used scientific effects outside the field where they were developed

TRIZ forecasting consists these major phases: 1.Analysis of the system's evolution: study of the history of the system and its position on its "life curve" (S-curve) 2."Road mapping“: application of the Laws and Lines of Technological Systems Evolution to forecast functional and structural alterations in the system 3.Problem formulation: formulation of engineering problems to be solved so as to achieve targets set at the previous phase 4.Problem solving: solving the formulated problems by using powerful analytical and solution tools of TRIZ

Analogy

Extrapolation

Statistics

Causal Relations