The “Rise” of China – and its Coming “Fall”?

On the Minds of China’s Leaders… Significant leadership change in 2012 National security Stability & control Economic growth Awareness of challenges/weaknesses

A “Jasmine Spring”?

On the minds of China’s leaders, cont’d. Importance of a stable world Conflicted world leadership Pride & humiliation No trend continues forever

China’s achievements since 1976 World’s 2 nd largest economy

China’s achievements since 1976, cont’d. Trade has ballooned; now critical to economy People’s livelihood has improved Communist ideology is out Enhanced involvement in worldwide organizations Steady modernization of armed forces

China’s achievements since 1976, cont’d.  Steady expansion of space program  Hong Kong, Taiwan, Macau

“The Future Ain’t What It Used To Be!”

China’s Many Challenges  Governance

China’s Many Challenges Civil Society Economic Corruption Demography  Environmental degradation

China’s many challenges, cont’d. Government control Legal National security; strategic policy Social  Ethnic tensions

“It’s tough making predictions, particularly about the future.”

A proposition… China’s spectacular “rise” could become a “fall” for at least a period of time as challenges multiply and undermine governance, economic growth, social stability and political cohesion

Possible developments Political 2. Would a weak Chinese government really be better for the US? Questions: 1. Would the US and other foreign businesses begin to pull back on investment and operations in China? 3. Could we still say that what happens in China stays in China?

Possible developments, cont’d. Economic Demographic Environmental degradation and future threats Ethnic tensions Corruption National security policy

US Long-term Approach to China Get our own house in order! Recognize China long-term will be major player and seek broad and deep engagement on all levels Maintain clear-sighted emphasis on US national interests – speak clearly, negotiate tenaciously Maintain strong national security – seek broader engagement with Chinese military, discuss strategic goals, increase transparency and trust Economic/trade – relentless pursuit of specific US goals Don’t preach!

What Do You Think?