BUILDING STRONG ® 1 Purpose: Develop tools for 3-7 day forecast of social and hydrological conditions for small-unit early entry and Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HA/DR) operations. Products: Framework for assessing hydrological impacts on social vulnerability and resilience Maps showing social vulnerability coupled with water depth and inundation duration Data requirements to drive OCONUS application of vulnerability analyses Algorithms for remotely sensed data that enable or improve inference and derivation of necessary hydrological data Payoff: Improved soldier preparedness on early entry, both for force projection and for disaster relief Deliver capabilities usable by Defense Intelligence Enterprise (DIE), COCOM analysts and planners, Marine Corps Intelligence Activity (MCIA), National Geospatial Agency. Hydro-SC Analysis for Early Entry & HA/DR Schedule & Cost MILESTONESFY12FY13FY14FY15 Sociocultural vulnerability /resilience analysis & tools Techniques for OCONUS Sociocultural and Hydro data aquisition Integrated modeling capability AT Status: New 35 Total: $2.3M Sociocultural Frameworks Remote & Historic Data Localized Sociocultural Models Localized Indices & Decision Support Localized Hydrological Models Does this need to start w/ FY13?

BUILDING STRONG ® 6. Transition Milestones: Sociocultural model for OCONUS flood vulnerability and resilience (FY13) UROC deployment of social vulnerability mapping (FY 14) Coarse-to fine scale predictions for data-sparse sites (FY14&15) 7. Endorsements: seeking endorsements from Jim Hill, MCIA, Lt Gen. Bash, CENTCOM J-4 8. Other Work Package Attributes: 1.What is the problem? Small units entering a theater cannot anticipate the hydrological conditions they will face and how those conditions will translate into social and cultural challenges. 2. What are the barriers to solving this problem? Cannot yet (deleted:predict) forecast the impact of flood events on local OCONUS populations (deleted: and their response because sociocultural analysis don’t include hydrological drivers) Limited (delete:access) identification of appropriate and available hydrological and sociocultural data (deleted: needed) for integrated early entry & HA/DR analysis Methods for inferring and deriving hydrological and sociocultural parameters from remote sources are inadequate. The time to solution and obtaining fine (small-unit) scale (delete:predictions) representations are particular limitations. 3. How will you overcome those barriers? Develop an analytical framework for (deleted: coupling) integrating short-term weather forecasts, hydrological modeling, and localized analysis of social vulnerability/resilience Pre-build integrated hydrological and sociocultural models for (delete:regions) areas of interest (delete:to include potential incursions and areas) commonly in need of disaster relief Develop novel approaches that enable or improve inference and derivation of necessary sociocultural and hydrological data in data- sparse environments 4. What is the capability you are developing? Software tool to allow analysts to combine pre-built sociocultural models with short-term weather forecasts. The result is a quick turn planning tool that can be prepared in 1 wk/1 mo describing impacts of hydrologic events upon sociocultural factors using integrated information analysis, thus giving soldiers a better understanding of The conditions they will face The needs of the local population An ability to prioritize needs and better allocate resources 5. Quantitative Metrics: MeasureCurrentProg. Obj.Army Obj.TRL OCONUS sociocultural modeling with hydrological stimuli Only CONUS cultural data and no hydrological forcing Include hydrologic and local-cultural stimuli for at least 4 regions of interest Understand social response to hydrologic events in the cultural context of AFRICOM, EUCOM, PACOM, SOUTHCOM 5 (delete:Coupling) Integration of hydrological and sociocultural models Not (delete:coupled) integrated at all. Any assessments done separately. (delete:Couple) Integrate the two capabilities so that (delete: either one could be used to drive the other) seamless, interactive analysis can occur. Information synthesis; transform data rapidly into usable knowledge for logistics to culture and economics 5 UROC response time for weather/hydrology in data-sparse regions; social vulnerability model development time 6 months to develop a large scale model, poor data quality; 1 year for case- specific model 2 weeks to develop a large scale model; generalizable model that can be tailored for specific situations in 3 months Understanding dynamics via remote sensing and predictive modeling 5 Status: New Hydro-SC Analysis for Early Entry & HA/DR