Creating an Interface Between LEAP & the LIASs Presentation to the Disaster Risk Management and Food Security Sector (DRMFSS) April, 2010 DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT &

1)Earlier projection of needs 2)Objective, science-based data and outcomes 3)Cutting-edge advancements in understanding and responding to risk, mitigation, and response The LEAP-LIAS interface will enable: Why is integration important? DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT &

DRR Formulation = f (Hazard Extreme Food or Livelihood Insecurity Nature, Location and Magnitude of shock or shocks Household and regional economic systems in relation to shock(s) People’s capacity to cope on their own Risk,Vulnerability/Capabilities) Risk = f (H,V/C) Livelihoods Databases (HEA) LEAP Why is integration important?

LEAP Yield Reduction in % (2002 Maize_Meher) How will it work? No. beneficiaries LEAP crop yield reduction data by woreda Beneficiary numbers are then exported back to LEAP and mapped …is automatically input into the HEA LIAS & SMaRT sheets and the scenario is run, generating beneficiary numbers by woreda

1)LEAP yield reduction figures are adjusted to be comparable to the reference year used in the LIASs How will it work? Adjust LEAP data to HEA reference year Apply to groups of similar crops Adjust for LZ differences Run the scenario in the SMaRT Export to LEAP 2)LEAP yield reduction specifications are applied to crop groups with similar LEAP crop coefficients, start of plant date, and length of growing period 3)Specifications are adjusted for livelihood zone differences in crops & crop proportions using a crop index for each season an interface sheet 4)The new ‘scenario’ – informed by LEAP inputs – are run in the SMaRT tool to produce beneficiary numbers by woreda 5)Data on beneficiary numbers are exported back to LEAP through an interface sheet

LEAP yield reduction data is the percentage reduction in yield of a give crop compared to the yield obtained without water stress HEA data is based on a specific reference year that, while considered ‘normal’, is not equivalent to a year without water stress In order to be able to apply LEAP data to HEA scenarios, we must project LEAP yield reduction data to the HEA reference year Adjust LEAP Yield Reduction Data to HEA Reference Year Adjust LEAP data to HEA reference year DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT & Apply to groups of similar crops Adjust for LZ differences Run the scenario in the SMaRT Export to LEAP

Apply to groups of similar crops Adjust LEAP data to HEA reference year Crop coefficient data from LEAP is used to help group similar crops together DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT & Adjust for LZ differences Run the scenario in the SMaRT Export to LEAP

Apply to groups of similar crops Crop coefficient data from LEAP is used to help group similar crops together DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT & Adjust LEAP data to HEA reference year Adjust for LZ differences Run the scenario in the SMaRT Export to LEAP

The livelihoods databases already have specific information on where certain crops are grown – and when – for the entire country Cropping patterns for main cereals grown Apply to groups of similar crops Adjust LEAP data to HEA reference year Adjust for LZ differences Run the scenario in the SMaRT Export to LEAP

Most important crop sold excluding staples Most important crop sold including staples Cropping patterns for other crops Apply to groups of similar crops Adjust LEAP data to HEA reference year Adjust for LZ differences Run the scenario in the SMaRT Export to LEAP

Not all rainfall failures will affect the same people… Seasonality and Livelihoods: Production Patterns Unimodal Kremt dominant – bimodal Belg dominant – two seasons Belg dominant, bimodal Kremt dominant – two seasons Apply to groups of similar crops Adjust LEAP data to HEA reference year Adjust for LZ differences Run the scenario in the SMaRT Export to LEAP

Percent of grain production harvested in belg Percent of grain production planted in belg Not all rainfall failures will affect the same people… Seasonality and Livelihoods: Production Patterns Apply to groups of similar crops Adjust LEAP data to HEA reference year Adjust for LZ differences Run the scenario in the SMaRT Export to LEAP

Not all rainfall failures will affect the same people… Seasonality and Livelihoods: Production Patterns DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT & Apply to groups of similar crops Adjust LEAP data to HEA reference year Adjust for LZ differences Run the scenario in the SMaRT Export to LEAP

Apply to groups of similar crops Crop plant start dates and length of season (normal year) are classified into 6 different categories for all LZs in the country DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT & Apply to groups of similar crops Adjust LEAP data to HEA reference year Adjust for LZ differences Run the scenario in the SMaRT Export to LEAP

v Crop plant start dates and length of season (normal year) are classified into 6 different categories for all LZs in the country DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT & Apply to groups of similar crops Adjust LEAP data to HEA reference year Adjust for LZ differences Run the scenario in the SMaRT Export to LEAP

Within one woreda, there are often areas of different agro-ecology and/or livelihoods. We account for these differences by applying the LEAP yield reduction figures to relevant crops in each livelihood zone, and then aggregate back to woreda level. Adjust for LZ differences Apply to groups of similar crops DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT & Adjust LEAP data to HEA reference year Run the scenario in the SMaRT Export to LEAP No. beneficiaries

Apply to groups of similar crops Adjust LEAP data to HEA reference year Run the scenario in the SMaRT Adjust for LZ differences Export to LEAP S M a R T T O O L : A m h a r a R e g i o n Scenarios can be run automatically from a centralized interface for each region. Data on market prices, demand for labour, livestock production, and coping strategies uptake can be included in the hazard data input into the tools. Beneficiary numbers are then generated by woreda, and can be mapped. LIASs: Amhara Region

Beneficiary numbers by woreda can then be exported to LEAP and mapped, along with any other relevant parameters Export to LEAP Adjust for LZ differences Apply to groups of similar crops DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT & Adjust LEAP data to HEA reference year Run the scenario in the SMaRT Export to LEAP No. beneficiaries

Collaboration and development of the initial interface between LEAP and the Livelihoods Databases is ongoing. Demonstration of the interface will take place in early June, when stakeholders will convene to determine how to move forward with continued development of the pairing of these tools and their integration into the early warning system. DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT & Next Steps

Extra Slides DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT &

Define YR (Yield Reduction) = Y/Y(ref), where Y is yield and ref is HEA reference year YR LEAP = 1-Y/Y LEAP YR HEA = 1-Y/Y HEA Rearrange the first equation: Y = (1-YR LEAP )*Y LEAP The second equation becomes: YR HEA = 1-((1-YR LEAP )*Y LEAP )/Y HEA = 1-(Y LEAP /Y HEA )*(1-YR LEAP Calibrate LEAP data to HEA reference year Apply to groups of similar crops Adjust for LZ differences Run the scenario in the SMaRT Export to LEAP Adjust LEAP Yield Reduction Data to HEA Reference Year DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT &

If YR LEAP for meher maize in the HEA reference year is 10% (0.1), and YR for the current year is 40% (0.4), YR adjusted for HEA (YR HEA ) = Y LEAP = 0.4, and Y LEAP / Y HEA = 1/(1-0.1) Y HEA = 1 – (1/0.9)*(1-0.4) = 0.34 The adjusted YR HEA = 34% of the HEA reference year. This is the figure that will be input into the SMaRT. For example… Calibrate LEAP data to HEA reference year Apply to groups of similar crops Adjust for LZ differences Run the scenario in the SMaRT Export to LEAP DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT &