Recent Birth Trends from a State and National Perspective: The Case of Arizona Presented by: Khaleel S. Hussaini PhD Bureau Chief, Public Health Statistics.

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Presentation transcript:

Recent Birth Trends from a State and National Perspective: The Case of Arizona Presented by: Khaleel S. Hussaini PhD Bureau Chief, Public Health Statistics Division of Public Health Preparedness

So what’s the story in Arizona ? Basic population structure of women of child-bearing age in Arizona is different than the US. Declines in fertility rates, birth rates are not only attributable to individual fertility decisions but a variety of factors such as socio-cultural, politico-legal, and economic reasons. A recent report by the Pew Research Center linked the decline in fertility to the economic recession linking state-level economic decline with state-level fertility decline. (Livingston 2011). The report also found that Hispanics’ fertility rate fell more than other race-ethnic groups as this group were most affected by the recession.

Legal Arizona Worker's Act (LAWA), 1st Jan 2008

So what next? Does the economy argument hold true for Arizona? Is this a statistical anomaly (noise, over/under-estimation of denominators for certain groups etcetera)? Perhaps it is related to “Public Health Prevention” efforts? Need more investigation that utilizes individual fertility behavior models and aggregate fertility data to explain the “story”?