Commentary on: In the Grip of Climate Change – The Circumpolar Dimension Discussion Paper: Session 1, Rob Huebert Douglas Bancroft Director Marine and Ice Services Conditions in 2007 were close to what was predicted for 2030 Leah Braithwaite Chief, Strategic Planning Marine and Ice Services

Page 2 Outline Brief overview of changing ice conditions General comments Arctic Scenarios Brief overview of the Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment recommendations Final words

Page 3 Long-term observations indicate that Arctic sea ice conditions are changing. The Summers of 2007 and 2008 saw the lowest minimum ice extents since 1971 : 4.2 and 4.7 million sq km respectively The 30 year “normal” minimum ice extent is 6.7 million sq km

Page 4 As of 2008, the NWP southern route had been navigable for a record 3 consecutive years. And the northern deep draft channel had been navigable throughout its length for the first 2 years in recorded history “Normal” ice conditions in Sept. (30 year average)

Page 5 As well, Canada lost 3 ice shelves from the northern coast of Ellesmere Island in 2008 The Ward Hunt Ice Shelf fragmented July Then the Serson Ice Shelf broke off July 31 - Aug 1 Finally the Markham Ice Shelf disintegrated between Aug 4-12

Page 6 From Jan 25/09 RADARSAT-2 image: –Size ~15 km 2 (down from 21 km 2 ) – Estimated Mass 750,000,000 tons (Assuming a 55m thickness) – Drift speed (Dec-Feb) ~ 9 nm/day Extreme Ice Events RADARSAT-2 Data and Products © MacDONALD, DETTWILER AND ASSOCIATES LTD. (2009)

Page 7 Overall Comments Dr. Huebert’s paper clearly articulates a compelling case: –Climate change is transforming the Arctic. –International perception that reduced sea ice means increasing Arctic access and opportunities –Arctic States now are faced with an increasing number of players There are also other key factors such as technological advancement, resource development, societal transformation and new and emerging geopolitical realities Canada now finds itself at the centre of these forces.

Page 8 What, so what, now what? What should Canada do? What should be the focus of Canadian policy-makers when looking to the north? How can we best meet Canadian interests and values? A partial answer to that general question from my own focus on northern shipping. Why? When it comes to economic drivers, marine shipping and related transportation infrastructure will be essential to sustained northern development, for Canada and internationally.

Page 9 Arctic Marine Navigation Scenarios – Mid-Century Two workshops were held in 2007 to create and analyse possible scenarios surrounding the future of Arctic marine navigation in the mid- century Workshop participants identified “Governance” and “Resources & Trade” as the most important and uncertain issues shaping future Arctic marine navigation. They speculated that depending on the response to the primary drivers including Climate Change – there could be 4 possible “worlds” High demand Unstable Low demand Unstable Low demand Stable High demand Stable Many internat’l players & competition for Arctic resources Political tensions Climate warming faster than expected Global economic downturn persists Increased domestic challenges Reduction in sea slower than predicted Arctic oil and gas reserves disappointing Alternative energy emerges as a viable alternative Public concern about climate change influences Economic rebound Systematic development of Arctic resources Cooperative economic and political efforts by Arctic States Climate warms as expected

Page 10 From the “Scenario Narratives Report: Future of Arctic Marine Navigation in Mid-Century”, Arctic Council’s PAME Working Group, March 2008

Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment Produced in response to Key Finding # 6 of the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) Report released in November 2004, namely: “Reduced sea ice is very likely to increase marine transport and access to resources” The AMSA was approved at the Sixth Ministerial Meeting of The Arctic Council, 29th of April, 2009, in Tromsø, including its recommendations –on enhancing Arctic marine safety, –protecting Arctic people and environment, –building Arctic marine infrastructure, –the request that Senior Arctic Officials (SAOs) to develop appropriate follow up actions.

Page 12 Enhancing Arctic Marine Safety Linking with International Organizations: develop unified positions … to advance the safety of Arctic marine shipping; and … coordinate, harmonize and enhance the implementation of the Arctic maritime regulatory framework. IMO Measures for Arctic Shipping: strengthen, harmonize and regularly update international standards for vessels operating in the Arctic. Uniformity of Arctic Shipping Governance: harmonization of Arctic marine shipping regulatory regimes Strengthening Passenger Ship Safety in Arctic Waters: apply the IMO’s Enhanced Contingency Planning Guidance for Passenger Ships Operating in Areas Remote from SAR Facilities Arctic Search and Rescue (SAR) Instrument: develop and implement a comprehensive, multi-national Arctic Search and Rescue (SAR) instrument

Page 13 Protecting Arctic People & the Environment Survey of Arctic Indigenous Marine Use Engagement with Arctic Communities Identify areas of heightened ecological and cultural significance Specially Designated Arctic Marine Areas Protection from Invasive Species: Oil Spill Prevention: That the Arctic states decide to enhance the mutual cooperation in the field of oil spill prevention Addressing Impacts on Marine Mammals Reducing Air Emissions

Page 14 Building the Arctic Marine Infrastructure Improvements in Arctic marine infrastructure are needed to enhance safety and environmental protection in support of sustainable development Continue development of a comprehensive Arctic marine traffic awareness system Continue to develop circumpolar environmental pollution response capabilities Significantly improve the level and access to Hydrographic, Meteorological and Oceanographic data and information Baffinland

Page 15 Final Words In summary, we need to ensure that the future for the Arctic is one of balance – a successful “Arctic Saga” rather than a politically- charged, wild-west “Arctic Race” We need to jointly and co-operatively implement recommendations such as those that have been tabled in documents like the AMSA Most importantly, though, we need to invest in people to make all of this happen - providing the interdisciplinary training and expertise for them to be ready for 2030