Hazardous Weather Forecasts and Warnings Overview: Forecast Division Jack Kain (NSSL) February 25–27, 2015 National Weather Center Norman, Oklahoma.

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Presentation transcript:

Hazardous Weather Forecasts and Warnings Overview: Forecast Division Jack Kain (NSSL) February 25–27, 2015 National Weather Center Norman, Oklahoma

NSSL Forecast Research and Development Division NSSL Lab Review Feb 25–27, 20152

3 Basic Research Applied Research Operational Transition NSSL Forecast Research and Development : Spanning the spectrum from Research to Operations Quality : Publications, Awards, Technology Transfer, Invited Presentations Performance : Efficiency, focus - Relationships with SPC, broader NWS allow us to concentrate directly on users’ needs – with constant feedback. Relevance : From NOAA/OAR Strategic Plan: How can we improve forecasts, warnings, and decision support for high- impact weather events?

“Process Studies of Convective Storms and their Environments” by Conrad Ziegler: A linchpin of basic research at NSSL for over 20 years NSSL Lab Review Feb 25–27, (From New Jersey) Quality : Ziegler was lead PI on multiple NSF grants that funded major collaborative field programs & innovative analysis projects for collected data Performance : Annual participation in HWT experiments keeps Ziegler grounded, able to tailor his research to the needs of end users Relevance: Ziegler’s efforts help fill in the gaps in our understanding of fundamental atmospheric processes, providing a foundation for better forecasts and warnings

“Ground-Based Instrument Development and Observational Strategies” by Dave Turner NSSL Lab Review Feb 25–27, Quality: Turner has more than 100 peer-reviewed publications; 10 invited presentations in last 2 years (4 outside the U.S.) Performance : Turner consistently maintains >$500K in external funding; funds and mentors large numbers of students; serves on Program Boards and Committees for major scientific funding agencies Relevance: Goal from NOAA R&D 5-year Plan: Develop the foundational infrastructure for a “Network of Networks” that provides boundary layer profiles of winds, temperature, and moisture (from Montana)

NSSL Lab Review Feb 25–27, Quality: Clark won the 2011 AMS Editor’s Award, 2012 Presidential Early Career Award for Scientists and Engineers (PECASE), the 2013 OU/A&GS Dean’s Award for “excellence in research and scholarship” Performance : HWT has instituted a funded, peer- reviewed proposal process for choosing and evaluating projects Relevance: HWT activities engage and promote alignment between researchers, developers, and front-line forecasters. “HWT Spring Forecasting Experiment: History & Success” by Adam Clark (From Iowa)

“Bridging Research and Operations: SPC interactions & Field Experiments” by Mike Coniglio NSSL Lab Review Feb 25–27, Hometown: Buffalo, NY Quality: Coniglio won the 2008 PECASE Award, 2009 NSSL Outstanding Scientific Paper Award, and 2012 AMS Kenneth C. Spengler Award Performance : Coniglio is the first NSSL scientist to work as a forecaster for the SPC, fulfilling a key element of the 1990s NWS re-organization vision Relevance: Coniglio is a leader in collaborative NSSL-SPC research, infusing scientific knowledge into SPC operations and operational insight into NSSL research activities

“The Warn on Forecast Program” by Lou Wicker NSSL Lab Review Feb 25–27, From: Rochester, NY Quality: ~100 peer-reviewed publications last 5 years for WoF Team; significant software contributions (e.g., model improvement, data assimilation) to broader community – R2A Performance : WoF stakeholders are engaged through frequent communications and annual WoF workshop; Scientific integrity and vision are maintained through collaboration with the WoF Science Advisory Board. Relevance: Goal from NOAA R&D 5-year Plan: “Establish…technologies needed to produce robust ensemble-based numerical model warnings of severe weather with extended lead times, up to one hour or longer”

“Severe Weather Climatology and Long-Term Forecasting” by Harold Brooks NSSL Lab Review Feb 25–27, Hometown: St. Louis, MO Quality: Harold won the 2012 NOAA Albritton Award for “outstanding achievement in communicating the meaning and value of NOAA-related science and research to non-scientific audiences” Performance : Exceptional breadth of contributions, from contributing to the 2006 IPCC team that won Nobel Peace Prize to playing a key role in establishing the European Severe Storms Laboratory to serving on the OKC Mayor’s Storm Safety Task Force Relevance: Objective from NOAA R&D 5-year Plan: “Apply understanding of weather and climate extremes and the weather-climate linkage to improve preparedness and response”