Atmospheric Research HOT COWS! Presentation of pilot risk assessment to stakeholders Probability of climate change in terms of milk loss Adaptation assessment.

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Presentation transcript:

Atmospheric Research HOT COWS! Presentation of pilot risk assessment to stakeholders Probability of climate change in terms of milk loss Adaptation assessment Planning horizons

Atmospheric Research Heat stress model Temperature / Heat Index (THI) Maximum temperature and dewpoint temperature THI = T max T dewpoint

Atmospheric Research Production effects THI between 79 and 88 THI between 72 and 78 mild stress no stress moderate stress mild stress

Atmospheric Research Milk loss sensitivity analysis (THI >72) Dewpoint Temperature Change (°C) Maximum Temperature Change (°C) 280 (4%) 350 (5%) 420 (6%) 490 (7%) 540 (8%) 630 (9%) 700 (10%)

Atmospheric Research Milk loss sensitivity analysis (THI >78) Dewpoint Temperature Change (°C) Maximum Temperature Change (°C)

Atmospheric Research Constructing climate probabilities for maximum temperature in 2070 Global Warming

Atmospheric Research Constructing climate probabilities for dewpoint temperature in 2070 Global Warming Regional Dewpoint Change per DGW

Atmospheric Research Risk response surface

Atmospheric Research Risk of average milk loss under climate change - THI72

Atmospheric Research Risk of average milk loss under climate change - THI78

Atmospheric Research Milk gain due to adaptation from THI72 to THI78

Atmospheric Research Planning horizons and windows of adaptation Planning horizon