Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles APSenergy March 2 nd, 2008 Dr. Mark Duvall Electric Power Research Institute

2 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV) Combustion engine and stored electric energy both used Adaptation of existing hybrids Range-Extended Electric Vehicle (REEV) Drive power is primarily electric Engine is used only when stored electrical energy is exhausted Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) Use on on-board electricity Recharged from electrical grid No engine Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV) Combustion engine plus one or more electric motors. Uses only hydrocarbon fuel

3 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. A Few Thoughts on Current Status (2007 was a big year) Most major OEMs have either announced PHEV activities or are already moving –Diversity of activities –Major presence at Detroit Auto Show –Recent DOE solicitation Reunification of PHEV concept to include both EV-based and HEV-based concepts Growing consensus around advanced battery manufacturing and cost as key issues Renewed discussion on the future of U.S. battery manufacturing

4 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Plug-In Hybrid – Many Different Designs Split Parallel Series

5 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Vehicle Fuel Economy Analyses

6 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Vehicle Fuel Economy – Torque Control Battery Depleting Battery Sustaining Component efficiencies from modeling (FUDS) Fuel inputs need Gasoline to Electricity Equivalence: –Fuel Costs ($/gal, $/kWh) –Well to Tank Efficiency –CO 2 Emissions (g/kWh, g/gal)

7 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Vehicle Fuel Economy – Torque Control Results of Optimization –T_engine = f(rpm, T_command) Battery Depleting – Fueling Cost Optimized Battery Sustaining

8 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Engine On/Off Algorithm Comparison

9 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Battery State-of-Charge in a PHEV

10 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. LiIon Testing at SCE (capacity) LiIon capacity is looking good. There is some degradation, but it is within bounds and linear.

11 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. LiIon Testing at SCE (power) LiIon power is also degrading, but within acceptable limits.

12 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. The Future of the Electric Sector Three Possible Scenarios Scenario Definition High CO 2 Medium CO 2 Low CO 2 Cost of CO 2 Emissions Allowances LowModerateHigh Power Plant Retirements SlowerNormalFaster New Generation Technologies Unavailable: Coal with CCS New Nuclear New Biomass Normal Technology Availability and Performance Available: Retrofit of CCS to existing IGCC and PC plants Lower Performance: SCPC, CCNG, GT, Wind, and Solar Higher Performance: Solar Annual Electricity Demand Growth 1.56% per year on average : 0.45% : None SCPC – Supercritical Pulverized Coal CCNG – Combined Cycle Natural Gas GT – Gas Turbine (natural gas) CCS – Carbon Capture and Storage Key Parameters Value of CO 2 emissions allowances Plant capacity retirement and expansion Technology availability, cost and performance Electricity demand PHEV bounding scenarios of 20%, 62%, and 80% new vehicle market share by 2050

13 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Power Plant-Specific PHEV Emissions in 2010 PHEV 20 – 12,000 Annual Miles CoalNatural GasNon-Emitting Generation

14 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Increase with Liquid Fossil-Fuel Alternatives to Oil Source: Farrell, A. E. and Brandt, Adam R. (2006). Risks of the oil transition. Environmental Research Letters, 2006.

15 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Electric Sector Simulation Results (2050) PHEV 10, 20, & 40 – 12,000 Annual Miles

16 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Electricity grid evolves over time Nationwide fleet takes time to renew itself or “turn over” Impact would be low in early years, but could be very high in future A potential million metric ton annual reduction in GHG emissions Annual Reduction in Greenhouse Gas Emissions From PHEV Adoption

17 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Overall CO 2 e Results All nine scenarios resulted in CO 2 e reductions from PHEV adoption Every region of the country will see reductions In the future, PHEVs charged from new coal (highest emitter) w/o CCS roughly equivalent to HEV, superior to CV –There is unlikely to be a future electric scenario where PHEVs do not return CO 2 e benefit 2050 Annual CO 2 e Reduction (million metric tons) Electric Sector CO 2 Intensity HighMediumLow PHEV Fleet Penetration Low Medium High

18 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Impacts to Energy Electricity and Petroleum Moderate electricity demand growth Capacity expansion 19 to 72 GW by 2050 nationwide (1.2 – 4.6%) 3-4 million barrels per day in oil savings (Medium PHEV Case, 2050) Electricity Demand: Medium CO 2 Case

19 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. U.S. Power Plant Emissions Trends Source: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Power plant emissions of SO 2 and NOx will continue to decrease due to tighter federal regulatory limits (caps) on emissions Other local and national regulations further constrain power plant emissions Air quality is determined by emissions from all sources undergoing chemical reactions within the atmosphere

20 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Net Changes in Criteria Emissions Due to PHEVs Power Plant Emissions Emissions capped under law (SO 2, NOx, Hg) are essentially unchanged Primary PM emissions increase (defined by a performance standard) Vehicle Emissions NOx, VOC, SO 2, PM all decrease Significant NOx, VOC reductions at vehicle tailpipe Reduction in refinery and related emissions

21 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. PHEVs Improve Overall Air Quality Reduced Formation of Ozone Air quality model simulates atmospheric chemistry and transport Lower NOx and VOC emissions results in less ozone formation particularly in urban areas Change in 8-Hour Ozone Design Value (ppb) PHEV Case – Base Case

22 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. PHEVs Improve Overall Air Quality Reduced Formation of Secondary PM 2.5 PM 2.5 includes both direct emissions and secondary PM formed in the atmosphere PHEVs reduce motor vehicle emissions of VOC and NOx. VOCs emissions from power plants are not significant Total annual SO 2 and NOx from power plants capped by federal law The net result of PHEVs is a notable decrease in the formation of secondary PM 2.5 Change in Daily PM 2.5 Design Value (µg m -3 ) PHEV Case – Base Case

23 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. PHEVs Improve Overall Air Quality Reduced Deposition of Sulfates, Nitrates, Nitrogen, Mercury

24 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. The Future of the Electric Sector Three Possible Scenarios Scenario Definition High CO 2 Medium CO 2 Low CO 2 Cost of CO 2 Emissions Allowances LowModerateHigh Power Plant Retirements SlowerNormalFaster New Generation Technologies Unavailable: Coal with CCS New Nuclear New Biomass Normal Technology Availability and Performance Available: Retrofit of CCS to existing IGCC and PC plants Lower Performance: SCPC, CCNG, GT, Wind, and Solar Higher Performance: Solar Annual Electricity Demand Growth 1.56% per year on average : 0.45% : None SCPC – Supercritical Pulverized Coal CCNG – Combined Cycle Natural Gas GT – Gas Turbine (natural gas) CCS – Carbon Capture and Storage Key Parameters Value of CO 2 emissions allowances Plant capacity retirement and expansion Technology availability, cost and performance Electricity demand

Electricity as a Fuel (for Transportation) APSenergy March 2 nd, 2008 Dr. Mark Duvall Electric Power Research Institute

26 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Overview – Electric Utility Perspective Long-held consensus view of the value of electrifying transportation –Financial –Environmental –Energy Security Industry is incredibly diverse –Number of companies and organizations –Financial and operating models –External requirements Electric sector undergoing fundamental change –Environmental and sustainability –New technology adoption

27 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Plug-In Hybrid Value Proposition for the Electric Utility Industry Electricity as a transportation fuel PHEVs as energy storage Demand response Energy efficiency Integration of renewables Load shaping Improved asset utilization Improved system efficiency Lower cost of stationary energy storage PHEVs synergistic with Smart Grid Emissions reductions CO 2 reductions or credits Environmental Image Customer satisfaction Local economic development Improve reliability Improve customer rate structure We need to understand the many components

28 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

29 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. What is the Smart Grid? Will PHEVs Participate in the Smart Grid Smart Grid is the interaction of power systems and information technology Enables greater information flow, superior management of system for reliability, stability, cost, etc. Empowers ratepayers to manage energy and costs Standardized communication between vehicles and the grid critical to enabling this link. ?

30 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. The Electric System of the Future Efficient Use of Energy Provide information and tools to install infrastructure now Develop designs and migration strategies for “ideal” future

31 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Electric Load Duration Curve Source: California Independent System Operator Corporation Hours per Year Last 25% of capacity needed less than 10% of the time Last 5% (2,500 MW) needed less than 50 hours per year

32 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Integrating Renewables Source – Pacific Gas & Electric

33 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Energy Storage Transportation – Electric Sector Synergies Energy storage is a disruptive technology for the electric industry Cost-effective energy storage would benefit all areas of the energy value chain: generation, transmission, distribution, and end-use Key applications: firming large penetration of intermittent renewables, grid support, end-use load shifting, etc. Current energy storage systems are only marginally cost competitive. Costs need to come down by factor of 2-5 times. Need innovation and standardization as well as policy recognition.

34 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. PHEV Interface to Infrastructure General consensus that first step is charging-only functionality –Intelligent charging is key to minimizing customer and utility costs, customer satisfaction Cooperation on standards currently ongoing –Infrastructure Working Council –Utility participation in SAE committees Understanding tradeoffs and capabilities between numerous communications options V2G and V2H (home) are out there—not yet clear consensus on value and feasibility

35 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Technologies for New Generation in Cost of CO 2, $/metric ton Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh CF Nuclear PC IGCC Biomass

36 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Technologies for New Generation in Cost of CO 2, $/metric ton Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh Nuclear Biomass IGCC w/cap PC w/cap Solar (CSP)

37 © 2007 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Summary Electricity is a clean, abundant, low-carbon, non-petroleum based transportation fuel Infrastructure standards are a critical Numerous elements to the value proposition that must be clearly understood Information flow between vehicle and utiliity—on some level— is critical to maximizing value Energy storage also a disruptive technology to electric sector –Lack of installed manufacturing National demonstrations are important, as soon as feasible