Eugene S. Takle Iowa State University Midwest Weather Working Group Indianapolis, IN 7 October 2009

Des Moines Airport Data 1983: so far: : 26

Des Moines Airport Data 1983: : so far: 0

Des Moines Airport Data 1983: : so far: 0

Des Moines Airport Data 1983: : so far: 0 6 days ≥ 100 o F in the last 20 years

Ames Data

Des Moines Airport Data

State-Wide Average Data

Cedar Rapids Data

“One of the clearest trends in the United States observational record is an increasing frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events… Over the last century there was a 50% increase in the frequency of days with precipitation over mm (four inches) in the upper midwestern U.S.; this trend is statistically significant “

Cedar Rapids Data

D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet

Source: IPCC 4 th Assessment Report, 2007

December-January- February Temperature Change A1B Emission Scenario minus Source: IPCC 4 th Assessment Report, 2007

June-July-August Temperature Change A1B Emission Scenario minus Source: IPCC 4 th Assessment Report, 2007

December-January- February Precipitation Change A1B Emission Scenario minus Source: IPCC 4 th Assessment Report, 2007

June-July-August Precipitation Change A1B Emission Scenario minus Source: IPCC 4 th Assessment Report, 2007

Change in Annual Cloud Cover Source: IPCC 4 th Assessment Report, 2007

A1B Emission Scenario minus Change in Annual Cloud Cover -1.5 Source: IPCC 4 th Assessment Report, 2007

Change in Diurnal Temperature Range

A1B Emission Scenario minus Change in Diurnal Temperature Range Source: IPCC 4 th Assessment Report, 2007

Change in Evaporation Source: IPCC 4 th Assessment Report, 2007

A1B Emission Scenario minus Change in Evaporation Source: IPCC 4 th Assessment Report, 2007

Change in Soil Moisture Source: IPCC 4 th Assessment Report, 2007

A1B Emission Scenario minus Change in Soil Moisture Source: IPCC 4 th Assessment Report, 2007

 Longer frost-free period (high)  Higher average winter temperatures (high)  Fewer extreme cold temperatures in winter (high)  Fewer extreme high temperatures in summer in short term but more in long term (medium)  Higher nighttime temperatures both summer and winter (high)  More freeze-thaw cycles (high)  Increased temperature variability (high) Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by models No current trend but model suggestion or current trend but model inconclusive *Estimated from IPCC reports

 More (~10%) precipitation annually (medium)  Change in “seasonality”: Most of the increase will come in the first half of the year (wetter springs, drier falls) (high)  More water-logging of soils in spring (medium)  More variability of summer precipitation (high)  More intense rain events and hence more runoff (high)  Higher episodic streamflow (medium)  Longer periods without rain (medium)  Higher absolute humidity (high)  Stronger storm systems (medium)  More winter soil moisture recharge (medium)  Snowfall increases (late winter) in short term but decreases in the long run (medium) *Estimated from IPCC reports Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by models No current trend but model suggestion or current trend but model inconclusive

 Reduced wind speeds (high)  Reduced solar radiation (medium)  Increased tropospheric ozone (high)  Accelerated loss of soil carbon (high)  Phenological stages are shortened (high)  Weeds grow more rapidly under elevated atmospheric CO2 (high)  Weeds migrate northward and are less sensitive to herbicides (high)  Plants have increased water used efficiency (high) Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by models No current trend but model suggestion or current trend but model inconclusive *Estimated from IPCC and CCSP reports

 Waxman-Markey Bill  Midwest activities relating to a “national climate service”  Question for Midwest Weather Working Group

 TITLE I—CLEAN ENERGY  TITLE II—ENERGY EFFICIENCY  TITLE III—REDUCING GLOBAL WARMING POLLUTION  TITLE IV—TRANSITIONING TO A CLEAN ENERGY ECONOMY  TITLE VII—GLOBAL WARMING POLLUTION REDUCTION PROGRAM  TITLE VIII—ADDITIONAL GREENHOUSE GAS STANDARDS

 TITLE IV—TRANSITIONING TO A CLEAN ENERGY ECONOMY  Subtitle E—Adapting to Climate Change PART 1—DOMESTIC ADAPTATION: Subpart A—National Climate Change Adaptation Program  NATIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENTS.  CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION SERVICES  NATIONAL CLIMATE SERVICE

 Midwest regional office of the National Weather Service has been exploring climate needs assessment for the Midwest (Doug Kluck)  Corn and Climate Workshop (Ames, 2008)  Regional Climate Services Planning Meeting for Agriculture, September 9-10, 2009 – Champaign/Urbana, IL  Pilot project (Steve Hilberg, Dev Niyogi, Gene Takle) on agriculture needs assessment  Calendar for weather-driven agriculture decsions

 Don’t ask “what climate information do you need and when do you need it?”  Rather, “what do you do and when do you do it?”  When (month) are decisions made?  What is the lead time related to that decision?  2 hours (weather forecast)  2 days (weather forecast)  2 weeks (ensemble climate simulation)  2 months (ensemble climate simulation)  6 months (ensemble climate simulation)  2 years (ensemble climate simulation)

 What decision tools that you currently use can be driven by hourly values of future meteorological or soil variables?  When (month) are these decisions made?  What lead time is needed for these weather conditions?