Acceptable Change: A case study from the Moray Firth Dr Jared Wilson Marine Ornithologist

Introduction 1.The Moray Firth wind farms 2.Estimation of effects 3.Acceptable change

1. Moray Firth Wind Farms BOWL 1 wind farm, 140 WTG MORL 3 wind farm, 186 WTG

1. Moray Firth Wind Farms East Caithness Cliffs SPA Great black-backed gull Herring gull Puffin Razorbill Guillemot Kittiwake Fulmar North Caithness Cliffs SPA Puffin Razorbill Guillemot Kittiwake Fulmar BOWL 1 wind farm, 140 WTG MORL 3 wind farms, 186 WTG

2. Estimation of Effect Two principle mechanisms Collision mortality Herring gull Greater black-backed gull Displacement reduced productivity Puffin Razorbill Guillemot

2. Estimation of Effect Collision mortality Great black-backed & herring gulls Abundance based on at-sea survey data Estimated using Band Collision Risk Model Agreement in use of Option 3 (Extended model, generic flight height data) & 98% Avoidance rate.

Collision mortality ‘common currency’

2. Estimation of Effect Displacement Puffin, razorbill & guillemot Estimated using at-sea estimates of abundance Assumption that impact was reduced productivity. To ensure transparency in how displacement effects derived and apporptioned to populations, ‘common currency’ produced.

Displacement ‘common currency’

3. Acceptable Change -Relevant test No adverse affect on the integrity of the site Key Conservation Objective For each species, maintain in the long term the population as a viable component of the site

3. Acceptable Change Reference population Historic Forecast

3. Acceptable Change Reference population Historic Forecast

3. Acceptable Change Reference population Historic Forecast SPA Designation Application Start of Operation End of Operation After recovery period

Range of Options available 3. Acceptable Change Thresholds

Probability of population decline. Collision mortality Probability of decline

Probability of population decline.

Probability of population decline due to collision mortalities. For great black-backed gull, in absence of wind farm, population decline of any magnitude a precautionary "likely" P of any decline limited to 0.21 (from 0.14) Used (2) PVA to identify mortality with a P of decline <0.21 [10 birds all ages] Compared with PBR

Probability of population decline due to displacement. For puffin, in absence of wind farm, population decline of any magnitude a precautionary “about as likely as not" P of any decline limited to 0.28 (from 0.12) Used (2) PVA to identify reduction in productivity with P of decline < 0.28 [800 birds displaced] Compared with PBR

Uncertainty and Precaution Range of (un-quantified) uncertainties in estimates of wind farm effects. Currently limited ability to incorporate uncertainty. Therefore: Effects estimated in a precautionary manner. Thresholds set in a precautionary manner. As uncertainties reduce, appropriate reduction in precaution should also occur. On-going work e.g. ORJIP will reduce (or quantify) uncertainty.

Summary 1.The Moray Firth 2.Estimation of effects 3.Acceptable change

Dr Jared Wilson Marine Ornithologist