CfWI produces quality intelligence to inform better workforce planning, that improves people’s lives A methodology for scenario generation using system dynamics Dr Graham Willis
Immediate decisions System changes Future strategy 1 to 5 yrs5 to 10 yrs+10 yrs Context NumbersKey dynamics Trends Uncertainty Scenarios
Scenario generation Influence diagram Politicised – actors can effect causality Clustered into themes Used as starting point for scenarios Plausible, traceable
Horizon Scanning Key trends & dynamics Horizon Scanning Key trends & dynamics Workforce Analysis Evidence-based Workforce Analysis Evidence-based Scenario Generation Possible futures Assumptions Scenario Generation Possible futures Assumptions Workforce Modelling Numbers Uncertainty Workforce Modelling Numbers Uncertainty Future framework
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