“Who is an aam aadmi? Anyone who is tired of this corrupt system is aam aadmi" - Arvind Kejriwal, Founder of AAP Samarth Agarwal, Anik Ghosh, Sagar Pandya, Christian Pfab, Taka Omote Game Theory Mid-term Prezo Oct 20 th 2014 Delhi Elections through Game Theory lens

Scams Anti-corruption movement 2010 Political timeline 1947 Independence Congress (The Incumbent) BJP (The Challenger) Nov ‘12 AAP Dec ‘13May ‘14 National Elections Delhi Elections

Delhi – political capital of the country 2008 results Others 4 seats BJP 23 seats Congress 43 seats Total: 70 seats Majority: 36 seats BJP 32 seats Congress 8 seats AAP 28 seats Others 2 seats 2013 results

Players’ goals and motivations Congress’ main goal is to not let AAP pass the anti-corruption bill  Win Delhi elections  Unlikely to pass anti- corruption bill  Improve its seat tally  Not pass the anti- corruption bill  Win Delhi elections  Pass the anti- corruption bill

Congress Does not do anything Offers support to AAP Accepts support Does not accept support AAP looses credibility Anti-corruption bill No anti- corruption bill Congress continues supporting Severe harm to AAP’s reputation, but able to implement other reforms Congress withdraws support. Re-elections. AAP tries to redeem its reputation, but highly unlikely to come back into majority Outcome: Re-elections AAP maintains credibility, but unlikely to get majority Congress Outcome: Re-elections AAP expected to win because of strong past performance Look forward reason back analysis

Inward thinking: Don’t support AAP Congress LFRB: Support AAP Congress Congress decides to extend support to AAP

Change the game Public says: “Accept” Public says: “Do not accept” AAP Government AAP implements reforms AAP implements anti-corruption bill Re-elections AAP implements a few ‘quick-win’ reforms AAP increases likelihood of getting reelected with majority AAP maintains credibility Re-elections AAP maintains credibility and increases likelihood of winning majority Public opinion Withdraws support Keeps support Congress Anti-corruption bill Congress * Payoffs are indicative

Congress offers support to AAP Congress AAP changes the game Congress Inward thinking: Don’t support AAP Congress AAP goes for a public referendum

What actually happened “Congress offers unconditional support to AAP to form government in Delhi” – NDTV, December “Massive response to AAP referendum” – the Hindu, December “Delhi elections: 679,000 people took part in AAP referendum” – DNA India, December “AAP decides to ask people if it should form govt in Delhi” – Mint, December “The common man wants AAP to form Govt.” – Firstpost, December “AAP set to form govnt in Delhi” – Times of India, December

What impact did AAP have on the National Elections? Next time How long does this coalition last?