Douglas Holtz-Eakin Paul A. Volcker Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations Senior Adviser, Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC Alternative Fiscal Scenarios: Train.

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Presentation transcript:

Douglas Holtz-Eakin Paul A. Volcker Fellow, Council on Foreign Relations Senior Adviser, Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC Alternative Fiscal Scenarios: Train Wreck or Return to Sanity?

Federal Debt, 1790 to 2002 (Percentage of GDP)

The Population Age 65 or Older as a Percentage of the Population Ages 20 to 64 (Percent)

Federal Debt Held by the Public Under CBO’s Long-Term Budget Scenarios Scenario 1 = higher spending/lower revenues Scenario 2 = intermediate spending/lower revenues Scenario 3 = lower spending/lower revenues Scenario 4 = higher spending/higher revenues Scenario 5 = intermediate spending/higher revenues Scenario 6 = lower spending/higher revenues Percentage of Gross Domestic Product

A Scenario for Total Federal Spending and Revenues Percentage of GDP

Total Federal Spending for Medicare and Medicaid Under Different Assumptions About Excess Cost Growth Percentage of Gross Domestic Product

Sources of Medicare Cost Growth Since 1970 Percentage of Gross Domestic Product

Social Security Outlays and Revenues Under the Scheduled Benefits Scenario Percentage of GDP