The Costs of Major Wars: The Phoenix Factor A.F.K. Organski and Jacek Kugler

Introduction Distribution of power  Major War Major War  Distribution of power?

Theoretical Propositions 1) Keynes 1)Short run: like an opening and closing of a pair of scissors 2)Losers would drag winners’ economic growth down, decreasing the gap between them 2) Normal Angell 1)All nations lose power after war, but the winners do not lose as much as the losers; the gap continues

Organski: the Phoenix Factor Levels of power will eventually return to the pattern they would have followed in the absence of war. Convergence of winners and losers Phoenix factor: losers appear to rise from the ashes of their defeat

O&K Propositions Proposition 1: Belligerent countries that win major wars gain in power, and belligerent losers suffer substantial short term losses. Proposition 2: Belligerent winners retain antebellum levels of growth, and the gap between winners and losers is erased by the accelerated recovery of losers.

Empirical Measures Power: measured by GNP Wars: World Wars I & II Base period used to project a growth trend; this trend is compared to actual economic performance Problem: impact of non-war events such as the Great Depression Sample of nations: Table 12-2

Summary of Results 1) Evidence of Phoenix factor for entire sample (Figure 12-2) 2) World War I: losers do recover, but the impact of the Great Depression makes the economic output much lower than that forecasted for all groups (Figure 12-4)

Summary of Results 3) World War II: both winners and losers experienced strong economic recovery; gap between losers and winners persists (Figure 12-6); however, major power losers catch up (Figure 12-7)

Conclusions War has no profound impact on the distribution of power in the system. The Phoenix factor cannot be explained by aid that winners provide to losers What about the political consequences of war?